Jarun vs Hrvace: match statistics

I back Jarun to win (1): the hosts have a 46% home win rate, a positive goal difference at home (+8) and average 1.46 goals scored and only 0.85 conceded per home match. Hrvace perform much worse away — only 14% wins and as many as 64% defeats on the road, averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.79 conceded, and failing to score in 43% of away matches. Jarun creates more and better chances: 9.31 average shots and 3.69 on target at home with a 16% conversion rate, versus 8.14 shots, 3.43 on target and 10% conversion for Hrvace away. xG metrics confirm the hosts’ advantage — Jarun’s home xG is 1.22 with an actual 1.46 goals, while Hrvace’s away xG is 1.20 but only 0.79 goals scored, indicating poor finishing by the visitors. Although Hrvace have a better recent points return in the last 5 matches (1.8 pts vs 0.6 pts for Jarun), the weak away efficiency and higher share of clean sheets for Jarun (38% vs 14%) lead me to the assessment: Jarun 60%, draw 25%, Hrvace 15%.

I predict BTTS - Yes (60%) because Hrvace have scored 11 goals in their last 5 matches (2.2 per match) and have an attacking xG of 1.33, while Jarun conceded an expected goals against of 1.75 in those five games and have conceded 6 goals (1.2 per match), indicating the visitors create many chances against a vulnerable defense. Seasonal metrics also support a goals-heavy outcome: Jarun average 1.57 goals per match and Hrvace concede 1.79 goals per match; both teams have a season BTTS rate of 50% (league BTTS is 43%). Jarun record more shots on target (3.93 vs 3.43) and have a higher conversion rate (18% vs 10%), increasing the likelihood the home side responds with a goal despite poorer form. Offsetting signals toward No: Jarun have 36% clean sheets this season and 0% BTTS in their last five matches, while Hrvace have only 14% clean sheets, which lowers the probability of mutual scoring. Overall, recent xG and Hrvace’s 11 goals provide a stronger signal for both teams to score, hence the recommendation BTTS - Yes.

xG and goals-per-game analysis indicates a combined potential of about 2.47 goals: attacking xG for Jarun is 1.15, attacking xG for Hrvace 1.20, with xG against 1.51 (Hrvace) and 1.08 (Jarun), yielding an expected 1.33 goals for the home side and 1.14 for the away side. Shot and finishing metrics support this — Jarun averages 8.79 shots and 3.93 on target with an 18% conversion, Hrvace 8.14 shots and 3.43 on target with a 10% conversion, suggesting more chances and a finishing edge for the home team. Seasonal percentages show over 1.5 occurred in 64% of Jarun’s matches and 71% of Hrvace’s, while over 2.5 registered 57% and 64% and over 3.5 only 29% and 21%, so the strongest signal is over 1.5. Recent form differences over the last 5 matches are material: Jarun scored 2 goals in the last 5 (0.4 avg), Hrvace 11 goals (2.2 avg), which increases the likelihood of at least 2 goals in the fixture. Based on the above I estimate P(over1.5) ≈71%, P(over2.5) ≈45% and P(over3.5) ≈24%, therefore recommend a bet on Over 1.5 as the most probable selection.

Jarun led at the break in 50% of matches (7 times) and scores an average of 0.79 goals in the first half versus 0.43 for Hrvace, giving them a clear advantage in the first 45 minutes. Over the full match the hosts average 1.57 goals with a shot conversion rate of 18% compared to the visitors’ 0.79 and 10%, and Hrvace concede an average of 1.79 goals per game, so Jarun’s lead at the break is unlikely to suffer a turnaround. Jarun also performs well after the interval — they have 22 points and average 1.57 points earned after half-time, while Hrvace have 7 points and average 0.5 points after half-time — this increases the hosts’ chance of maintaining the scoreline. On this basis the most likely scenario is 1/1 (hosts lead at half-time and win) with an estimated probability of 36%, with alternatives of X/1 (11%) and 2/2 (13%).