Jeddah vs Al Raed: match statistics

Al Raed holds a clear offensive edge: they have scored 50 goals this season versus Jeddah’s 30, and average 1.46 goals per away match compared to 0.69 for Jeddah at home. The gap in chance quality is confirmed by xG and shot volume: Al Raed posts an average xG of 1.64 on the road and attempts 13.08 shots per game, 4.69 on target, while Jeddah records an xG of 1.21 in home matches and attempts 9.62 shots, 3.31 on target. Form and defense favor the visitors: in the last 5 matches Al Raed have a record of 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss and 2.0 points per game, conceding 4 goals (0.8 per game), whereas Jeddah have 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, 1.4 points per game and have conceded 12 goals (2.4 per game). Additionally, Jeddah score only 0.69 goals at home with a conversion rate of 7% and keep a clean sheet in 23% of matches, while Al Raed have an 11% conversion rate and 31% clean sheets on the road. Considering the advantage in shots, xG, finishing efficiency and Jeddah’s poor defensive run (12 goals conceded in 5 matches), I back an Al Raed win; I give them about a 60% chance, 25% for a draw and 15% for a home win.

Seasonal data strongly support BTTS: Jeddah has a seasonal BTTS rate of 79% and averages 2.21 goals at home, while Al Raed has BTTS 54% and averages 1.46 goals away. In the league BTTS occurs in 62% of matches and the goals-per-game average is 2.92, further backing a both-teams-to-score scenario. xG indicates similar offensive strength (xG 1.57 for Jeddah vs 1.64 for Al Raed), and Jeddah registers 5.21 shots on target versus 4.69 for Al Raed, so both sides create scoring opportunities. A dampening signal is the last 5 matches, where both teams have BTTS in only 40%; however Jeddah conceded an average of 2.4 goals in that run and Al Raed scored an average of 1.6 goals, which increases the likelihood both teams will find the net. Considering the seasonal 79% vs 54% BTTS, xG ~1.6 for each team and league-wide 62% BTTS, I tip BTTS - Yes at 70% vs 30% for No.

The xG-and-defensive-averages model projects 1.40 expected goals for Jeddah and 1.36 for Al Raed, totaling 2.76 expected goals. Seasonal rates show Jeddah at home records Over 1.5 in 86% of matches and Al Raed in 69%; the Poisson model gives ~76% probability for Over 1.5, so the signal for at least 2 goals is strong. For the 2.5 line the picture is more balanced: Jeddah posts Over 2.5 in 64% of games, Al Raed 46%, league average 59%, and Poisson with λ=2.76 prices Over 2.5 at ~52%, providing a moderate edge for Over 2.5. Additionally, Jeddah’s conversion rate is 17% versus 11% for Al Raed and they record an actual 2.21 goals at home versus xG 1.57; in the last 5 matches Jeddah have scored 5 and conceded 12 (avg 1.0/2.4) while Al Raed are 8/4 (avg 1.6/0.8), which further lifts the expected goal total. Therefore I recommend Over 1.5 (line 1.5, side: Over) as the best pick — it’s the strongest signal with data indicating ~76% probability and strong seasonal support (86% for Jeddah).

Jeddah holds a clear edge this season: they average 2.21 goals per match versus Al Raed’s 1.46, and with similar xG (1.57 vs 1.64) a higher shot conversion rate (17% vs 11%) translates into greater efficiency. At Half-Time the home side leads in 43% of matches, the visitors in 38%, and 86% of Jeddah’s games feature at least one goal by the break, increasing the likelihood that the home team will lead at Half-Time. In the Second Half Jeddah are even stronger — averaging 1.5 goals compared to Al Raed’s 0.62 and winning 56% of second halves — so maintaining or extending a lead is probable. Therefore the model’s top signal is HT/FT 1/1 (~34%), while alternatives include Half-Time draw with a home win (X/1 ~15%) and a turnaround where the home team wins after trailing at the break (2/1 ~9%). Additionally, 79% of the home matches see both teams scoring, and Jeddah’s overall win rate is 57% versus Al Raed’s 23%, which further supports the HT/FT 1/1 recommendation.