Jeddah vs Al Zulfi: match statistics

I predict an away win ('2'). Al Zulfi holds a clear statistical advantage: they have scored 41 goals this season and average 1.53 goals away, while Jeddah have 31 goals this season and only 0.6 goals per home match. The visitors average 12.2 shots and 4.33 on target per away game with a conversion rate of 13%, whereas the hosts record 9.27 shots, 3.2 on target and an approximate 6% conversion, indicating superior efficiency and quality of chances for Al Zulfi. Defensively Jeddah concede 1.8 goals at home with xG against of 1.44, while Al Zulfi concede 1.33 away with xG for 1.48, meaning the visitors generate more valuable xG and better limit opponents. In the last 5 matches Al Zulfi have scored 9 goals and average 1.6 points per game, whereas Jeddah have only 3 goals and 0.8 points, and the hosts fail to score in 47% of home matches versus 13% of Al Zulfi’s away matches without a goal; therefore I assess the probabilities as 62% for the visitors, 23% for a draw and 15% for the hosts.

The primary signal for BTTS - Yes is strong: Al Zulfi has a seasonal BTTS rate of 80% and 80% in the last 5 matches, while Jeddah has a seasonal 56% BTTS but only 40% in the last 5; the league average is 63%. In the last 5 meetings Al Zulfi scored 9 goals (1.8 per match) and Jeddah conceded 9 goals (1.8), which directly increases the likelihood that both teams will score. xG and shooting metrics confirm this picture: Al Zulfi recently has xG 1.51 and 4.33 shots on target per game, while opponents vs Jeddah generate xG 1.93 and have 4.0 shots on target, meaning Jeddah is vulnerable to dangerous chances. Seasonal averages also favor an exchange of goals — Al Zulfi scores 1.53 and concedes 1.33, Jeddah scores 1.13 and concedes 1.13; additionally Al Zulfi’s shot conversion (13% vs 9%) gives them an edge in conversion. Considering Al Zulfi’s 80% BTTS, the 63% league baseline and recent forms (9 goals by Al Zulfi vs 9 conceded by Jeddah in 5), I estimate 72% for 'yes' and 28% for 'no'.

The xG-based model projects 1.41 expected goals for Jeddah and 1.31 for Al Zulfi, totaling 2.72 xG, which in a Poisson distribution corresponds to roughly a 75% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5). Seasonal stats confirm a scoring tendency: Jeddah had Over 1.5 in 75% of matches, Al Zulfi in 93%, averaging 84%, so I assign an 80% probability to Over 1.5. For the 2.5 line, a Poisson with lambda=2.72 yields about a 51% chance of at least 3 goals, while seasonal Over 2.5 rates are 38% for the home side and 53% for the away side (average 45.5%), therefore I estimate Over 2.5 at 52%. The chance of more than 3.5 goals is moderately low: the Poisson indicates about 29%, seasonal Over 3.5 rates are 13% and 27% (average 20%), hence I price Over 3.5 at 29%. Additionally, Al Zulfi scored 9 goals in the last 5 matches (1.8 avg) versus Jeddah's 3 goals (0.6), and the rates of both teams scoring are 56% and 80%, which supports that the strongest play is Over 1.5.

Al Zulfi has a statistical edge: average goals per match 1.53 versus Jeddah’s 1.13, higher win percentage 40% vs 31%, and xG 1.48 vs 1.40, confirming greater chances for the visitors. At Half-Time the visitors also perform better — on average 0.87 goals at the break versus the hosts’ 0.44, and 25 goals at the break vs 18, with away matches reaching at least one goal by Half-Time in 87% of cases versus 81% for the home team. Jeddah were trailing at the break in 44% of their fixtures, and in the last 5 matches they have only a 20% win rate compared to Al Zulfi’s 40%, which increases the likelihood that the visitors will take the initiative. Modeling HT→FT transitions, I assumed that when the hosts are trailing at the break (44%), the visitors finish victorious in about 65% of such situations — this translates to the 2/2 combination at roughly 28.6% (rounded to 29%). Therefore the strongest signal is 2/2 (29%), with the next relatively strong scenarios being 1/1 (16%) and Half-Time draw with a later visitors’ win X/2 (11%).