Jesenice vs Ilirija: match statistics

Ilirija sit 2nd and have collected 10 points from their last five matches, winning 3 games, while Jesenice have taken 7 points during the same period. The visitors are significantly more effective away from home: they score an average of 3.5 goals per match with an xG of 2.00, while the hosts average 1.33 goals at home with an xG of 1.76. Ilirija also create more danger, averaging 14.5 shots and 6 on target, compared with Jesenice’s 13.67 attempts and 4.67 on target, while their shot conversion rate stands at 24% versus 10% for their opponents. The hosts have failed to keep a clean sheet in any home match and concede an average of 1.67 goals, which favors the visitors’ attacking potential. Jesenice can exploit the fact that Ilirija allow an average away xG of 1.24, but the superior chance quality and current attacking efficiency point to an away win.

The BTTS - No pick is primarily supported by Jesenice’s very solid home defense: the hosts have not conceded yet and have kept a clean sheet in 100% of such matches. Ilirija boasts a high average of 3.5 goals scored away from home and an xG of 2.00, making their goal highly likely, but this does not guarantee a goal from the hosts. Jesenice score only 1.0 goal per home match, with a conversion rate of 7%, while Ilirija concede an average of 1.0 goal and have kept clean sheets in 50% of matches. Jesenice’s seasonal BTTS rate is 0%, compared with a league average of just 41%, reinforcing the scenario in which at least one team fails to score. The last five matches provide a more balanced signal, with BTTS landing in 40% of Jesenice’s games and 60% of Ilirija’s; however, the defensive data still slightly favors BTTS - No.

Ilirija clearly offer greater attacking potential: they are averaging 3.5 goals this season and 2.2 across their last five matches, compared with Jesenice’s 1.2. The visitors are also creating more high-quality chances, recording an average xG of 2.00 for the season and 1.74 in their last five games, along with 6.0 shots on target per match. All of Ilirija’s matches so far have gone Over 1.5 goals, with 100% of their games producing at least one goal. Jesenice have a run of tighter results, with 0% of their matches going Over 2.5 goals this season, although their last five outings have produced an average of 2.4 total goals. Over 1.5 goals is the strongest option, as the visitors’ attacking power significantly increases the likelihood of at least two goals, even with the hosts’ more cautious profile.

Ilirija have the stronger offensive profile: they score an average of 3.5 goals per match, generate 2.00 xG and register 6 shots on target, compared with Jesenice’s 1.0 goal, 1.64 xG and 4 shots on target. The visitors held a lead at the break in 50% of their matches, rising to 60% across their last five, while Jesenice were trailing at half-time in 40% of their games during this period. Ilirija’s first-half advantage is also clear in their goal output: they average 1.5 goals in the opening 45 minutes, compared with just 0.33 for Jesenice. Over the last five rounds, the visitors won 60% of their matches and averaged 2.2 goals, whereas the hosts recorded a 40% win rate, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.2 goals per game. Jesenice kept a clean sheet in their only home sample, but Ilirija’s higher volume of chances and significantly more efficient finishing—24% compared with 7%—support the HT/FT scenario of the visitors leading at the break and securing the final win.