Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs AS Slimane: match statistics

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane is a clear favorite at home: they have a 67% home win rate and a +6 home goal difference, scoring 1.25 and conceding 0.75 per home game. In the last 5 matches the hosts have scored 5 and conceded only 1, averaging 2 points per game, while AS Slimane in their last 5 have 1 win, 5 goals scored and 6 conceded, averaging 1 point per game. Quality of chances favors the hosts: at home they average 12.17 shots with 5.5 on target and xG = 1.56, whereas visitors on the road record 7.67 shots, 3.33 on target and xG = 0.92. AS Slimane struggle with efficiency away — 0.58 goals per away match, 0% clean sheets and in 67% of away games they fail to score, while the hosts fail to score in only 33% of home matches. Considering the hosts’ 67% home efficacy versus the visitors’ 8% away win rate, plus advantages in shots, xG and recent form, I assign a 72% probability to a home win, 18% to a draw and 10% to an away win.

The "no" scenario is more likely as both teams have low seasonal goals-per-game: home 0.31 and away 0.58 (0.89 combined). The home side additionally have only 15% BTTS - Yes rate this season and 0% in last5, keeping a clean sheet in 46% of matches and scoring 19 while conceding 25 this season, strongly favoring No Goal. The away team show a higher BTTS - Yes rate of 33% this season and 60% in last5, but they average just 0.58 goals (11 this season) and have conceded 27, so their attack is limited despite some Goal/Goal fixtures. xG and shot metrics confirm low productivity: home xG 0.78 vs xG against 1.37, away xG 0.92 vs xG against 1.70, average shots 4.43 (home) and 7.67 (away) with on-target 2.14 vs 3.33 and conversion rates of 10% and 8% indicate few high-quality chances. Considering seasonal and recent trends (home BTTS 15% and 0% last5 vs away 33% and 60% last5) I assign 72% probability to No and 28% to Yes.

Seasonal profiles indicate a low goal output: Jeunesse Sportive Omrane averages 0.31 goals per game, AS Slimane 0.58, totaling 0.89 goals, well below the league average of 1.73. In terms of chance quality the hosts have xG 0.78 while the away defense concedes 1.70 xG, but shot volumes (4.43 vs 7.67) and shots on target (2.14 vs 3.33) and conversion rates 10%/8% point to limited finishing. Seasonal shares of matches over 2.5 goals are only 15% for the hosts and 17% for the visitors (avg ~16%), while under 2.5 matches are 85% and 83%, which is the strongest signal in the data. Overall, accounting for form over the last 5 matches (hosts 5 scored/1 conceded, guests 5 scored/6 conceded), I estimate 0.55 goals for the hosts and 0.80 for the visitors (total 1.35); a Poisson model with these λ values yields roughly 39% chance of over 1.5, ~15% for Over 2.5 goals and ~5% for Over 3.5. Based on this, I recommend the Under 2.5 line as the strongest and most valuable signal.

The strongest signal is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1). Both teams draw at the break very frequently: the home side are level at half-time in 54% of matches, the away side in 58%, averaging around 56% draws after 45 minutes. Few goals are scored before the break — the hosts average 0.15 goals by half-time, the visitors 0.33, which supports the expectation of a draw at the break. After the break the hosts perform better: in the last five matches the home team averages 1.8 points in second halves versus 0.8 points for the away team, and form shows 60% home wins compared with 20% for away wins, increasing the probability of a turnaround. Additionally, the league is low-scoring (clean sheets in 91% of matches) and guests concede on average 1.25 goals per match versus 0.92 for hosts, so a realistic scenario is X/1 (e.g. 0-0 at half-time / 1-0 at full-time).