Juan Pablo II College vs Atlético Grau: match statistics

Juan Pablo II College have a clear attacking edge at home, averaging 1.5 goals per match, while Atlético Grau average just 0.4 away from home. The visitors have failed to score in 70% of their away matches and convert only 4% of their attempts, which limits their chances despite the hosts conceding an average of 1.9 goals. Atlético Grau have lost 70% of their matches away from home, whereas Juan Pablo II College have won 30% of their home fixtures and post higher average xG figures: 1.19 compared with 1.04. The hosts’ defense is unreliable, increasing the risk of a draw; however, the visitors average only 3 shots on target and have an away goal difference of -10. The teams’ last five matches do not indicate a significant points gap, but the hosts’ advantage in chance creation and finishing supports a narrow home win.

The strongest signal is Atlético Grau’s very limited attacking output: the visitors score an average of just 0.4 goals per match and failed to score in 70% of their league fixtures. BTTS - Yes has occurred in 40% of Juan Pablo II College’s matches and in just 20% of Atlético Grau’s, both clearly below the league average of 56%. The hosts keep a clean sheet in 40% of matches, while their opponents average only 3.0 shots on target with a 4% conversion rate. Although the hosts’ last five matches produced BTTS - Yes in 60% of cases, Atlético Grau saw this scenario in only 20% of matches during the same period and scored an average of 0.8 goals. Therefore, BTTS - No is the more likely outcome, meaning that at least one team—primarily the visitors—is expected to fail to score. This does not automatically imply a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

Atlético Grau score just 0.4 goals per game this season and fail to score in 70% of their matches, clearly limiting the potential for a high-scoring game. The hosts concede an average of only 0.8 goals and keep a clean sheet in 40% of matches, although their last five games have produced 1.8 goals conceded per game. Juan Pablo II College create chances worth an average of 1.61 xG, while Grau allow opponents 1.71 xG, which is why the largest share of the projected 2.15 goals falls to the hosts. Even so, the hosts average 1.1 goals and the visitors 0.4, while Over 3.5 goals has failed to land in 80% of both teams’ matches. The Under 3.5 line is therefore best supported by Grau’s low scoring efficiency and the very rare occurrence of four-goal games.

Juan Pablo II College have a clear advantage in the seasonal data: they average 1.1 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, while Atlético Grau score just 0.4 and concede 1.4 goals per match. The hosts led at the break in 50% of their matches, compared with just 10% for the visitors; moreover, Atlético Grau failed to score in the first half in as many as 90% of games. The hosts also hold the edge in terms of chance quality, with an average xG of 1.61 versus 1.04 for their opponents, while their average number of shots on target is 5.2 compared with 3.0. However, the last five matches suggest a more cautious start, as Juan Pablo II College were not ahead at half-time in any of them, while both teams were level after 45 minutes in 60% of cases. Despite this, Atlético Grau’s poor finishing and 70% loss rate across the season make the most likely outcome an HT/FT scenario in which the hosts lead at the break and go on to win: 1/1.