Juárez vs Atlético San Luis: match statistics

Atlético San Luis holds a slight edge and I project an away win, primarily because they have recorded 2 wins in their last 5 matches and average 1.4 points per game, while Juárez have no wins in that span and average just 0.4 points per game. Although the hosts create more chances at home — averaging 13.5 shots and 1.45 xG per match — and score 1.72 goals at home versus Atlético’s 1.56 on the road, Juárez have conceded 11 goals in their last 5 matches (2.2 per game). Accuracy metrics are balanced: Juárez average 4.33 shots on target at home and Atlético 4.38 on target away, with an identical conversion rate of 13% for both, which means defensive organization and current form will be decisive. Additionally, Juárez record only 11% clean sheets at home, while Atlético have 25% clean sheets away, and in the last 5 matches Atlético conceded 6 goals compared to Juárez’s 11 conceded, favoring the visitors. Considering the better points trend (1.4 vs 0.4) and a more stable short-term defense, I give higher probability to an away victory.

Current statistics strongly support BTTS: seasonally Juárez has BTTS in 59% of matches, Atlético San Luis in 69%, and the league BTTS rate is 59%. In the last 5 fixtures Juárez had BTTS in 100% (5/5), Atlético in 60% (3/5), with Juárez conceding on average 2.2 goals in that run and Atlético 1.2, which increases the likelihood of both teams scoring. Both sides create chances: xG for Juárez is 1.15 vs 1.32 for Atlético, and xG against are 1.36 and 1.58, indicating both teams have opportunity potential and are exposed to conceded goals. Shot metrics confirm the tempo – Juárez averages 3.35 shots on target and 10.47 shots overall, Atlético 4.38 on target and 11.81 overall, with a conversion rate of 13% for both, so created chances typically translate into goals. Given low clean sheet rates of 18% and 25% and combined over 2.5 + BTTS values (47% for the home side and 56% for the away) and a league goals average of 2.9, I tip BTTS - Yes with a probability of 80% versus 20% for No.

Both teams have moderate offensive strength: Juárez averages 1.35 goals per match, while Atlético San Luis averages 1.56, conceding 1.53 and 1.75 goals respectively. xG values are 1.15 for Juárez and 1.32 for San Luis, with xG against at 1.36 and 1.58, resulting in expected goals of 1.46 for the home side and 1.44 for the away side (total 2.90). Seasonal indicators show a high probability of at least 2 goals: Over 1.5 occurs in 82% of Juárez’s matches and 88% of San Luis’s matches (average ~85%), while Over 2.5 appears in 53% and 63% of fixtures (average ~58%). Additionally, the share of matches where both teams scored is 59% and 69%, and Juárez concedes an average of 2.2 goals in the last 5 matches, which increases the likelihood of at least 2 goals in this game; therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5.

A half-time draw appears most likely: the home side were level at the break in 53% of their matches, while the visitors were level at half-time in 38%, with first-half goals averages of 0.41 (Juárez) and 0.50 (Atlético San Luis). After the interval the advantage lies with the visitors — Atlético San Luis averages 1.63 points in second halves and wins 50% of second halves, whereas Juárez averages 0.76 points and only 18% second-half wins. This is supported by attacking metrics: visitors’ xG of 1.32 versus hosts’ 1.15, shots on target 4.38 vs 3.35 and goals per game 1.56 (visitors) versus 1.35 (hosts), which increases the visitors’ chance of a turnaround after the break. Additionally, across the season the visitors win 38% of matches versus 24% for the hosts, and in the last five fixtures Juárez have 0% wins compared to 40% wins for the visitors, reinforcing the scenario of the visitors winning after a half-time draw. Therefore my strongest signal is Half-Time/Full-Time draw then visitors win (X/2) with an assigned probability of 28%; alternatives are draw–draw (X/X) 16% and visitors leading and holding the lead (2/2) 15%.