Juárez vs Puebla: match statistics

I back Juárez to win (1) because the hosts have scored 7 goals in their last 5 matches (1.4 goals per match) compared to Puebla’s 3 goals (0.6 per match). Both teams conceded 11 goals across those five fixtures (2.2 goals conceded per match), indicating defensives on both sides are clearly vulnerable. Juárez also has superior recent points output: 0.8 points per match over the last five versus Puebla’s 0.2. The hosts recorded 1 win and 1 draw in those five, while the visitors have failed to win (0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses). The goal-difference over the last five is -4 for Juárez (7-11) versus -8 for Puebla (3-11), a 4-goal advantage for the hosts that justifies a higher probability for Juárez.

A strong signal for BTTS - Yes comes from Juárez having BTTS in 100% of their last 5 matches and Puebla in 60%, giving a simple average of 80% and indicating a high probability of both teams scoring. Both teams concede a lot of goals — averaging 2.2 goals per match over the last 5 (2.2 vs 2.2), with Juárez scoring 1.4 on average and Puebla 0.6, so even the weaker attack can still find the net. xG confirms the presence of scoring opportunities: Juárez has xG_for 1.32 and xG_against 1.92, Puebla has xG_for 1.03 and xG_against 1.96 — both sides create and concede close to 2.0 xG to the opponent. Additionally, Juárez have scored 7 and conceded 11 goals in the last 5 matches, while Puebla have scored 3 and conceded 11, which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. Based on this I assign a BTTS probability of 80% and recommend the 'yes' tip as the strongest signal.

Analysis of the last 5 matches shows Juárez scores on average 1.4 goals (7 goals in 5 matches) and concedes 2.2 goals (11 conceded), while Puebla scores 0.6 goals (3 goals) and also concedes 2.2 goals (11 conceded). xG values corroborate this picture: Juárez xG_for 1.32 versus xG_against Puebla 1.96, giving expected goals for Juárez ≈(1.32+1.96)/2=1.64; for Puebla similarly ≈(1.03+1.92)/2=1.48, totaling ≈3.12 goals. Additionally Juárez had 80% over 2.5 matches in the last 5, Puebla 60%, and BTTS is 100% and 60% respectively, which increases the likelihood of at least 2 goals. A probabilistic model with λ≈3.12 yields about 82% probability for Over 1.5 and about 60% for Over 2.5, therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal from the data.

In the last 5 matches Juárez have recorded 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses ('dlllw'), while Puebla have 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses ('dllll'); the home side average 1.4 goals per game compared to 0.6 for the visitors, with Juárez winning 20% of matches and Puebla 0%. At Half-Time Juárez led in 40% of those fixtures and averaged 0.8 goals by the break, whereas Puebla led in 20% and averaged 0.4 goals at Half-Time (half-time averages 1.6 vs 1.2). Both teams are defensively vulnerable — each concedes an average of 2.2 goals per match — which increases the likelihood of a turnaround after the break, but also means goals tend to come earlier (80% of Juárez matches had >0.5 goals by Half-Time). Considering Juárez’s more frequent lead at the break (40% vs 20%), superior scoring output (1.4 vs 0.6) and Puebla’s poor form (0% wins), the strongest scenario is 1/1 — Juárez leading at Half-Time and ultimately winning.