Juárez vs Tijuana: match statistics

Juárez has a clear advantage in attack and game control at home: in home matches they average 13.65 shots (4.53 on target) and score 1.76 goals per game with xG 1.47, while Tijuana away averages 10.47 shots (3.13 on target) and scores 1.2 goals with xG 1.12. Defensively the hosts concede 1.59 goals at home on average with xG against 1.12, whereas Tijuana concedes 2.07 goals away with xG against 1.81, indicating greater vulnerability of the visitors to created chances. The differences are also confirmed by outcome metrics: Juárez has a 35% home loss rate and a goal difference of +3, while Tijuana have a 60% away loss rate and a goal difference of -13. In the last 5 matches Juárez scored 7 and conceded 8 (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss), and Tijuana scored 6 and conceded 7 (2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses), with Juárez failing to score in 12% of home games and Tijuana blanking in 33% of away matches. Based on this I favor the hosts and estimate a 62% probability of a Juárez win, 22% for a draw and 16% for a Tijuana win.

Tijuana concedes an average of 2.07 goals per match with xG_against of 1.81, while Juárez generates xG 1.38 and scores an average of 1.67 goals this season — a strong signal that the home side should score. The visitors average 1.2 goals per season and have 1.2 goals in their last 5 matches, while Juárez concedes 1.6 goals in those 5 games and has 100% BTTS in the last 5, which increases the likelihood that Tijuana will also find the net. A counterargument is Juárez’s high clean sheet rate of 56% and the home side’s seasonal BTTS of just 44%, which partially limits the both-teams-to-score scenario. However, the league-level BTTS of 57% and the fact that Tijuana concedes a lot this season (2.07) with xG_against 1.81 weigh in favor of the “yes” option. Therefore I assess BTTS probability at 65% vs 35% for No Goal and recommend “BTTS - Yes” as the strongest signal from the data.

I back Over, particularly the 1.5 line, because Juárez have 72% of matches over 1.5 goals and Tijuana 87% — an average of roughly 80% chance of at least two goals. The xG model gives 1.60 for Juárez and 1.19 for Tijuana, calculated as the average of attack and opponent defense ((1.38+1.81)/2=1.595→1.60 and (1.12+1.25)/2=1.185→1.19), totaling 2.79 goals, which clearly exceeds the 1.5 line and provides a moderate edge versus 2.5. Additionally Juárez score 1.67 goals at home on the season, while Tijuana concede 2.07 away on average, reinforcing expectations for home goals. In the last 5 matches Juárez have an attacking xG of 1.69, and recent Over 2.5 rates over the last 5 are 60% for Juárez and 80% for Tijuana, so I rate Over 2.5 at about 60%. The chance of over 3.5 goals is limited — season Over 3.5 rates are 22% and 40% (avg ~31%) — therefore the safest pick is Over 1.5.

Season-long statistics clearly favor Juárez: the hosts score on average 1.67 goals per match and concede 0.67, their xG is 1.38 versus 1.12 for Tijuana, and shots on target 4.44 vs 3.13 suggest an advantage in chance creation. At Half-Time Juárez led in 9 matches (50%) and average 0.78 goals scored HT with only 0.17 conceded, and they kept a clean sheet at the break in 83% of cases; this is a strong signal for the hosts in the first half. Tijuana, meanwhile, concedes an average of 2.07 goals per match and were leading at the break in only 3 matches (20%), while being behind at HT in 6 matches (40%), which confirms their defensive vulnerability (xG against 1.81). Considering that the hosts lead at HT in 50% and win at home in 44% of matches, for these figures to align about 80% of HT leads must end in victory (0.5×0.8≈0.40), hence a strong chance of an HT/FT 1/1 (≈40%) alongside a high share of home draws (50%) translating into an X/X scenario (≈42%). Therefore I pick 1/1 — hosts lead at the break and win — as the primary selection; other model forecasts are X/X 42%, 1/X 8%, X/1 4%, X/2 4% and 1/2 2%.