Jubilo Iwata vs Kataller Toyama: match statistics

Kataller Toyama hold a slight edge in chance creation quality: away from home, they average xG 2.54 compared with Jubilo Iwata’s 1.75 at home, while also recording 21.5 shots per match versus the hosts’ 15.5. The visitors score an average of 2.0 goals away from home, while Jubilo average 1.5 at home, with both teams conceding 1.0 goal per game. Toyama’s defense also looks stronger from a chance-quality perspective, allowing xG 0.94 compared with Jubilo’s 1.05, and they have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their away matches. However, Jubilo remain unbeaten at home and have taken points in both of their home matches so far, meaning the draw remains a significant risk. Despite the weaker record of two defeats in their last five matches, the visitors’ greater attacking intensity and xG advantage marginally favor an away win.

Jubilo Iwata recorded BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.4 goals and conceding 1.4, which points to consistently open game scenarios. Kataller Toyama average 2.0 goals both across the season and in their last five outings, while their xG stands at a high 2.30, suggesting they should create chances away from home as well. The hosts generate a further 1.60 xG in their recent matches, while Toyama concede an average of 1.8 goals per game, despite their average xG conceded remaining low at 0.97. The signal is not clear-cut, as Toyama recorded BTTS in only 20% of their last five matches and kept a clean sheet in 50% of their league games. However, the attacking potential of both sides provides the edge, making it slightly more likely that each team will score at least once.

The goal profile of both teams is clearly above the league average of 2.78 goals: Jubilo Iwata have recorded a combined average of 2.8 goals in their last five matches, while Kataller Toyama have reached as high as 3.8. During this period, the hosts averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, whereas the visitors scored 2.0 and allowed 1.8 goals. Their creative potential also points towards an open game, with average xG of 1.60 for Jubilo and 2.30 for Toyama. At least two goals have been scored in every match played by both teams so far this season, making Over 1.5 goals the strongest selection, although the Over 2.5 goals line also has positive indicators.

Jubilo Iwata has strong arguments to take the lead before half-time: over their last five matches, they have averaged 1.0 goals scored in the first half and conceded just 0.4, while Kataller Toyama conceded an average of 1.0 goal before the break during the same period. The visitors went into half-time trailing in 60% of their last five matches, further supporting the scenario of a home lead after 45 minutes. After the break, however, the picture changes significantly, as Jubilo averaged just 0.4 goals and lost the second half in 80% of their matches, while Toyama scored 1.2 goals and won the second half in 60% of cases. Kataller also have higher season-long average xG, 2.54 compared with 2.38, as well as lower xG conceded, 0.94 compared with 1.22. The strongest signal is therefore a Jubilo lead at half-time, followed by a turnaround as the more effective visitors after the break come back into the game.