Juve Stabia vs Cesena: match statistics

Cesena sit higher in the table, in 8th place compared with Juve Stabia’s 17th, and remain unbeaten after four rounds, having recorded 1 win and 3 draws. The hosts have lost every home match so far, failing to score a single goal and conceding an average of 3 goals per game. Juve Stabia do average 15 shots per match with 62% possession, but their finishing remains ineffective, despite an average xG of 1.40. Cesena have won every away match to date, scoring an average of 2 goals and converting around 29% of their attempts, despite generating only 0.81 xG. Recent form also slightly favors the visitors, who have averaged 1.2 points per game across their last five appearances, compared with Juve Stabia’s 0.8.

Both teams have recorded BTTS at 100% so far, and neither has kept a clean sheet, which strongly supports goals at both ends. Juve Stabia concede an average of 1.33 goals, while Cesena score an average of 2.00 goals per match, so the visitors should pose a genuine threat. The hosts have posted a higher average xG over their last five matches—1.57 compared with Cesena’s 1.16—while opponents averaged 1.83 xG against them during this period. Recent defensive form has been poor on both sides: Juve Stabia conceded 10 goals in five matches, and Cesena 8, with BTTS rates of 60% and 80%, respectively. Although Juve Stabia have scored only 0.8 goals per match recently, Cesena’s failure to keep clean sheets and their average of 1.6 goals conceded per game support the BTTS scenario.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as both teams have surpassed this line in 100% of their league matches so far, and neither has kept a clean sheet. In their last five matches, Juve Stabia conceded an average of 2.0 goals, while Cesena conceded 1.6, clearly supporting a scenario with at least two goals. The hosts’ attacking potential is further underlined by their recent xG of 1.57, while allowing opponents an xG of 1.83. Cesena, meanwhile, can exploit the weakness of the Juve Stabia defense, which has an average xG against of 1.64. Both teams have also seen Over 2.5 goals in 60% of their last five matches, but the 2.5 line remains riskier due to the hosts scoring only 0.8 goals per game on average recently. The projected total of 2.87 goals provides a clear edge for Over 1.5, with a moderate indication toward Over 2.5.

The strongest signal points to Cesena leading at the break and the visitors going on to win, as Juve Stabia have been behind at half-time in 80% of their last five matches, failing to score a single first-half goal. Cesena have held a half-time lead in 60% of their recent outings, scoring an average of 0.8 goals before the break, while the hosts have conceded 1.2 goals per match during that period. In the current away data, Cesena have won every match, scoring an average of 2.0 goals and conceding just 1.0, whereas Juve Stabia have scored 1.33 and conceded 1.33 goals per home game. The hosts are in poorer form, with three defeats in their last five fixtures and an average of 2.0 goals conceded, while Cesena have lost only once and have drawn as many as three times. Although the hosts’ xG stands at 1.27 compared with Cesena’s 0.81, the visitors’ highly efficient chance conversion rate of 29%, versus 11% for Juve Stabia, strengthens the scenario of a strong start and Cesena maintaining their lead.