Jwaya vs Al Ahed: match statistics

Al Ahed is a narrow favorite: they sit 3rd versus Jwaya in 4th and have scored 12 goals in the last 5 matches, while Jwaya have managed just 1 in that period. Away, Al Ahed average 1.75 goals per game with a 19% shot conversion rate on 4.5 shots on target, whereas Jwaya at home average 1.36 goals per game with only a 6% conversion on 3.88 shots on target. Jwaya’s home defense looks statistically solid—just 0.45 goals conceded per game and 55% clean sheets—but their average xG against at home is 1.25 compared to the actual 0.45 goals conceded, suggesting the defensive outcome may be partly overperforming. Although Al Ahed have also conceded (11 in the last 5 matches), their away xG of 1.35 is similar to the hosts’ xG of 1.33, and higher efficiency plus greater possession (54% vs 45%) increase the visitors’ chances of creating and converting key opportunities. Therefore I predict an Al Ahed win—55% for the visitors, 25% draw, 20% for the hosts.

Seasonal BTTS indicators point to a low scoring profile for both teams: Jwaya 27%, Al Ahed 42%, with league BTTS at 30%, giving a baseline around 30–35%. Last 5 matches show strong asymmetry — Jwaya has BTTS 20% and averages 0.2 goals per game, while Al Ahed has BTTS 80% and averages 2.4 goals per game, so the visitors are clearly more active offensively. At the same time Jwaya keeps a clean sheet in 45% of season matches with a seasonal conceded goals average of 1.36, and Al Ahed has clean sheets in 42% with a seasonal conceded average of 1.0; league-wide clean sheet frequency is as high as 82%, which favors No BTTS. xG and shot metrics are comparable (xG 1.25 vs 1.35, shots 8.55 vs 9.0, shots on target 4.55 vs 4.5), but the hosts’ poor finishing form in the last 5 (0.2 goals) combined with the high clean sheet rates makes a No Goal/No BTTS scenario more likely. Therefore I estimate BTTS probability at 38% for 'Yes' and 62% for 'No', selecting 'No' as the recommended pick.

I expect about 2.56 goals in the match: Jwaya ~1.17 and Al Ahed ~1.39, calculated as an average of xG and seasonal averages (offensive xG: Jwaya 1.25 vs Al Ahed 1.35; opponents' xG: Jwaya 1.10 vs Al Ahed 0.99; seasonal goals per game: 1.45 vs 1.75). Al Ahed is in superior form over the last 5 matches — scoring 12 goals in the last 5 (avg. 2.4), while Jwaya has scored only 1 goal in the last 5 (avg. 0.2), which increases the likelihood of goals from the away side. Both teams almost always score at least once: Over 0.5 this season 91% for Jwaya and 100% for Al Ahed, and the share of matches with >=2 goals is 64% and 67% respectively. Based on total xG=2.56 the Poisson model gives ~73% probability for Over 1.5, ~47% for Over 2.5 and ~26% for Over 3.5, so the strongest signal is Over 1.5. I recommend betting the Over at the 1.5 line as the best value among the above options.

Al Ahed appears stronger offensively: averaging 1.75 goals scored this season versus Jwaya’s 1.45, and xG 1.35 vs 1.25 confirms superiority in quality of chances. In the last five matches Al Ahed scored on average 2.4 goals while Jwaya only 0.2; Jwaya had 100% draws at the break in those five games versus Al Ahed leading at the break in 40% of cases, which increases the likelihood of a draw HT. After the break the visitors perform better: they earn on average 1.92 points after halftime versus the home side’s 1.45, win second halves in 57% of cases and have a +6 goal difference there, while the hosts have 0 in that statistic. Additionally Jwaya concedes on average 0.82 goals after the break vs 0.42 conceded by Al Ahed, so the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a turnaround for the visitors by full-time; I assess X/2 at roughly 28% (the strongest signal) with 2/2 second at about 21%.