Kahraba Ismailia vs Petrojet: match statistics

Petrojet holds a clear defensive advantage and in the table: Kahraba are 19th, Petrojet 12th; the home side have not recorded any home wins (0% wins) and lose 82% of home matches, conceding on average 2.36 goals at their stadium. Kahraba average 9.27 shots per match and 3.36 shots on target at home, scoring 1.09 goals on average, but 38 goals conceded this season and 0% clean sheets indicate serious defensive issues and produce a high average of goals in their home matches (3.45). Petrojet away average 11.73 shots per match, xG 1.33 versus the home side xG 1.16, and concede only 1.18 goals on average away with 27% clean sheets, giving them superior chance quality and defensive stability. In the last 5 matches Kahraba have a record of 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss with an average of 1.2 points per match, and Petrojet 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses with an average of 0.8 points per match, so form is balanced but the season-long stats favor the visitors. Considering lower goals conceded (1.18 vs 2.36), higher xG for the visitors (1.33 vs 1.16) and Kahraba’s lack of home wins, I predict a Petrojet win (55%), draw (30%) or home win (15%).

Both teams show strong seasonal BTTS indicators: Kahraba 60% and Petrojet 64%, giving a base roughly 62% probability of both teams scoring. In the last 5 matches Kahraba posts BTTS at 80% and has scored 7 goals (1.4 per game), while Petrojet has 40% BTTS and managed only 4 goals in five matches (0.8 per game), which weakens their scoring chances. xG indicates comparable offensive potential — xG_for 1.30 vs 1.33 and xG_against 1.43 vs 1.35 — and average shots on target 3.5 vs 2.82 point to genuine chances for both sides. Additionally, low clean sheet percentages 30% and 27% and season totals of 23 goals scored by each team suggest both sides regularly both concede and score, so I assess BTTS 68% vs 32% and recommend the

Both teams generate very similar xG: Kahraba 1.30 and Petrojet 1.33, while opponents’ expected xG are 1.43 (for Kahraba) and 1.35 (for Petrojet), yielding forecasts of ≈1.33 goals for Kahraba and ≈1.38 for Petrojet (total ≈2.71). Season-long metrics confirm a scoring tendency — Over 1.5 occurs in 70% of Kahraba’s matches and 73% of Petrojet’s, and both teams scored in 60% and 64% of games respectively, increasing the likelihood of goals from both sides. In the last 5 matches Kahraba scored 7 and conceded 6 (1.4 and 1.2 per game), while Petrojet scored 4 and conceded 10 (0.8 and 2.0), suggesting weaker defense from Petrojet and higher combined potential. A Poisson model with λ=2.71 gives approximately a 75% chance for Over 1.5, ~51% for Over 2.5 and ~29% for Over 3.5. Therefore the strongest signal from the data is a bet on Over 1.5.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time (X/X). The home side drew at the break in 60% of matches, while the overall draw rates are 50% for hosts and 55% for visitors, strongly favoring a shared point outcome. Both teams have similar xG – 1.3 for the hosts versus 1.33 for the guests – and both score regularly across the season (60% for hosts and 64% for guests), which increases the probability of a draw with goals. The hosts concede only 0.1 goals on average by half-time and keep a clean sheet at the break in 90% of games, so goalless or minimal scores at 45 minutes are common. However, most goals come after the break (hosts’ second halves see >0 goals in 90% of matches vs 64% for visitors), and the hosts concede 1.1 goals on average in the second half with a second-half goal difference of -5, making a full-time draw (e.g. 1-1) the most probable outcome.