Kaisar vs Tobol: match statistics
Kaisar vs Tobol: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Kaisar played against Tobol in Kazakhstan Premier League (Kazakhstan). The game was played on May 17, 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Recent form
Kaisar has 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses over its last five games, averaging 0.60 points per game. Tobol has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with 1.40 points per game.
Scoring records
Kaisar scores 0.50 goals per game and allows 1.30. Tobol scores 0.89 and allows 1.56. Games in this league average 2.08 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 50% of Kaisar's games and 56% of Tobol's. The Over 2.5 rates are 20% and 44%, compared with league averages of 49% for BTTS and 35% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Tobol has the higher season xG average, 1.43 to 1.26 per game. Kaisar takes 12.2 shots per game, while Tobol takes 13.1.
First-half and second-half trends
Kaisar leads at halftime in 30% of its games and scores 0.10 goals per game after halftime. Tobol leads at halftime in 11% and scores 0.44 after halftime.
When the teams score
Kaisar's most productive scoring window is minutes 31-45+ (3 goals). For Tobol, it is minutes 0-15 (3 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Kazakhstan Premier League games average 2.08 goals. Both teams score in 49% of games, and 35% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 2 previous meetings were available. The record was 0 home wins, 1 draw and 1 away win. Those games averaged 1.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict a draw (X): Kaisar have not won at home yet — 0% home wins and as many as 83% of home matches end in a draw, with an average of 0.67 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per home game. Tobol show better overall form in the last five matches (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss and an average of 2 points per match) and have scored 6 goals in their last 5 fixtures, but are catastrophic away — 100% away losses, averaging 0.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per away match. Kaisar create more high-quality chances at home: 3.83 shots on target per match and xG 1.27 at home versus 2.4 shots on target and xG 1.15 for Tobol away. Tobol’s away efficiency is very low (conversion 4% and 60% of away matches go goalless for them), while Kaisar have a lower share of matches without scoring (33%) and 33% clean sheets at home, favoring the hosts defensively. Considering similar xG (1.27 vs 1.15), stronger home defense (0.83 goals conceded at home) and Kaisar’s high share of home draws, a low-scoring draw is the most likely outcome; a home win is more probable than an away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The signal for BTTS - Yes is strong: Kaisar has a season BTTS rate of 75% and 80% in the last 5 matches, while Tobol, despite a season BTTS of 40%, improved to 60% over the last five. Kaisar averages 1.5 goals per match this season with xG 1.77 and records 4.75 shots on target per game; Tobol concedes 2.0 goals per match statistically with xG against 1.59, which increases the likelihood Kaisar will score. Tobol scores only 0.4 goals per season on average and has a low shot conversion of 4%, however in the last 5 matches the visitors generate xG 1.84 and score 1.2 goals on average, while Kaisar concedes 1.6 goals on average in their last 5. Additionally, Kaisar has only 25% clean sheets this season (concedes in 75% of matches), so weighing seasonal and recent form I assign BTTS 66% vs 34% and tip 'yes' as the strongest signal.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Expected goals are estimated at Kaisar 1.68 (xG attack 1.77 vs Tobol defense average 1.59) and Tobol 1.35 (xG attack 1.15 vs Kaisar defense average 1.55), total 3.03. With a total of 3.03 the Poisson distribution gives ~81% probability of Over 1.5 goals and ~58% probability of Over 2.5 goals. Kaisar averages 16.0 shots and 4.75 on target per match with a conversion rate of 9.0%, while Tobol has 10.8 shots, 2.4 on target and a 4.0% conversion, indicating Kaisar’s superiority in creating chances. Additionally, Tobol concedes on average 2.0 goals per game this season and has 0% clean sheets, and Kaisar at home has 75% of matches with both teams scoring and 50% of matches Over 2.5 goals, which supports a minimum two-goal scenario. Given these data the best choice is Over 1.5, as it is the strongest statistical signal based on xG, shot volume and Tobol’s defensive vulnerability.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
At half-time the most likely outcome is a draw: the home side were level at the break in 3 of 4 matches (75%), and the visitors in 3 of 5 (60%), with average first-half goals of 0.75 for the home team and 0.2 for the away side. After the break there is a strong probability of a home victory due to the hosts' offensive superiority — the home team posts an xG of 1.77 versus 1.15 for the visitors, averages 16 shots and 4.75 on target per match compared to 10.8 and 2.4 for the away team, and demonstrates higher conversion efficiency (9% vs 4%). Additionally, the hosts have scored 3 goals in minutes 46–60 while the visitors conceded 2 in the same interval, suggesting the home side frequently breaks the deadlock soon after half-time. Season-long figures further support favoring the home team: they have a 50% win rate and average 1.5 goals per game versus 0.4 for the visitors, who on average concede 2.0 goals per match. Consequently the strongest signal is a Half-Time/Full-Time draw at the break and home win by full-time (X/1), with 1/1 and X/X remaining as alternative, less likely outcomes.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Kaisar | Tobol | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 26% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.13 | 0.26 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Tobol is 133% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / game - Kaisar · 1.4 pts / game - Tobol
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Tobol is 78% better for: goals scored per game.
0.5 goals / game - Kaisar · 0.89 goals / game - Tobol
Kaisar is 20% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.3 goals / game - Kaisar · 1.56 goals / game - Tobol
Kaisar scores in 50% of games (5 of 10 meczów), while Tobol keeps a clean sheet in 11% (1 of 9 meczów).
Tobol scores in 67% of games (6 of 9 meczów), while Kaisar keeps a clean sheet in 20% (2 of 10 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Kaisar
Over / Under - Tobol
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Kaisar is 40% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.4 pts / game - Kaisar · 1 pts / game - Tobol
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Kaisar - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 30% of games and wins 0%. Sometimes gives up a halftime lead.
Allows 0.5 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Tobol - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 11% of games and wins 22%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.4 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -1 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (3 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -7 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (3 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Kaisar
Tobol
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Kazakhstan Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Kaisar | Liga | Tobol | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 1.80 | 2.08 | ▲ 2.44 |
| Both teams scored | • 50% | 49% | ▲ 56% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 20% | 35% | ▲ 44% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 20% | 31% | ▼ 11% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 60% | 56% | • 56% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 60% | 70% | ▲ 78% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Record from Kaisar's perspective: 0 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss against Tobol. Games average 1.50 goals, and both teams scored in 50% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Kaisar vs Tobol?
The Kazakhstan Premier League match finished Kaisar 2:1 Tobol. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Kaisar and Tobol?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Kaisar won 0, Tobol won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 1.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Kaisar vs Tobol?
Kaisar score 0.50 goals per game on average and Tobol 0.89. The Kazakhstan Premier League average is 2.08 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 35% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Kaisar's matches and 56% of Tobol's.
What form are Kaisar and Tobol in?
Over the last 5 games Kaisar have a 0-3-2 record (0.60 points per game) and Tobol 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Kaisar vs Tobol?
The statistical background for Kaisar vs Tobol — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.