Kalisz vs Noteć Czarnków: match statistics

Noteć Czarnków has a clearly greater attacking potential away from home: they average 3 goals scored, 20.5 shots and 9 shots on target per match, with an xG of 2.16. Kalisz have won every home game so far and have not conceded a goal, but they create just 0.74 xG per match, while their opponents generate as much as 1.83 xG against them. The hosts are clinical, scoring on average once from 5 shots per game, but their results-based advantage appears less stable than the quality of chances created by their opponents. In their last five matches, the visitors have scored 12 goals while conceding 8, so an open game with chances for Kalisz as well can be expected. Noteć’s defense concedes an average of 2.5 goals away from home, but the greater volume of chances created gives them a slight edge in the prediction.

The strongest argument against BTTS - Yes is not Kalisz’s poor finishing alone: in their last 5 matches, they averaged just 0.8 goals, with an xG of only 0.87, and both teams scored in just 20% of those games. Across the full-season data, Kalisz are yet to score and have finished without finding the net in 100% of their matches, which significantly increases the likelihood of Noteć keeping a clean sheet. Noteć are highly dangerous going forward, averaging 2.4 goals and an xG of 2.04 across their last five appearances, so their goals are the most likely outcome. Their defense is not flawless, however, as they concede an average of 1.6 goals per match, but Kalisz’s poor chance creation limits the significance of this signal. Although the league-wide BTTS average stands at 67%, the hosts’ profile and their low recent rate of matches in which both teams scored support a scenario where at least one team fails to score.

Noteć Czarnków have averaged 2.4 goals scored over their last 5 matches, with a high average xG of 2.04, while Kalisz allowed opponents 1.53 xG. Kalisz scored only 0.8 goals per game during this period and recorded an xG of 0.87, but Noteć’s defense conceded an average of 1.6 goals, still giving the hosts a realistic route to finding the net. At least 3 goals were scored in 80% of Noteć’s last five matches, while the league-wide average is as high as 3.52 goals per game. In addition, both teams recorded a minimum of 2 goals in 100% of the available matches this season, although the small sample size calls for caution with higher lines. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as the visitors’ attacking potential alone should bring the match clearly closer to this threshold.

Noteć Czarnków have significantly stronger attacking numbers: they have averaged 2.4 goals over their last five matches, compared with just 0.8 for Kalisz. The visitors were leading at the break in three of their last five matches and averaged 1.4 goals before half-time, compared with 0.6 for the hosts. Kalisz failed to score in three of their last five first halves and lost two of those matches overall, increasing the likelihood that they will be unable to complete a turnaround if they fall behind. Noteć average 20.5 shots and 9 on target per match, with an xG of 2.16, so the most likely HT/FT outcome is a Noteć lead at half-time followed by a win at the final whistle.