Karcag SE vs Tiszakécske: match statistics

Karcag has a statistical home advantage: at home they generate 1.68 xG on average, register 5.07 shots on target and 14.14 shots per match and score 1.21 goals while conceding 1.29 on average. Tiszakécske away shows higher possession (54% vs 48%) and has scored 9 goals in the last 5 matches (3 wins), but on the road they produce 1.52 xG, average 4.25 shots on target and concede 1.79 goals per match. In the short term the visitors are in better form: Tiszakécske has 3 wins and 9 goals in the last 5 matches, translating to 1.8 points per game, whereas Karcag has only 1 win, 3 goals and 0.8 points per game. However, Karcag’s superiority in chance volume and home defensive metrics (29% clean sheets vs 14% for the visitors and lower xG conceded: 1.44 vs 1.49) suggests the hosts can limit the opponent’s effectiveness. Therefore I predict a home win, estimating their probability at 48%, draw 28% and away win 24%.

Both teams have a high BTTS rate this season: Karcag 64% and Tiszakécske 64%, well above the league average of 47%, which is a strong signal for BTTS - Yes. Both sides generate meaningful xG: Karcag 1.61 xG per game vs 1.47 xG against, Tiszakécske 1.52 xG vs 1.49 xG against, so both create and concede chances. In the last 5 matches Tiszakécske scored 9 goals (1.8 per game) while Karcag only 3 (0.6), with Karcag conceding 5 and Tiszakécske 8, increasing the likelihood of both teams scoring. Clean sheets are also rare: Karcag has 29% clean sheets, Tiszakécske 14%, and Karcag has 43% of matches with over 2.5 goals — all such matches included BTTS (0% over2.5 without BTTS). Therefore the BTTS scenario is more probable — I estimate ~72% for BTTS - Yes versus 28% for No Goal.

Based on xG and defensive metrics I project roughly 1.55 goals for Karcag (attack xG 1.61 vs away defense 1.49) and 1.50 for Tiszakécske (attack xG 1.52 vs home defense 1.47), totaling 3.05 expected goals. A Poisson model with lambda=3.05 indicates the probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) is about 81%, corroborated by seasonal Over 1.5 rates: home 79% and away 86%, while both teams score in 64% each. The model gives roughly 59% probability for three or more goals (Over 2.5); seasonal Over 2.5 rates are 43% for home and 50% for away, so Over 2.5 has a moderate edge (59% vs 41%). For Over 3.5 the model estimates about 36% (Under 64%), which aligns with seasonal Over 3.5: 14% home and 43% away — risk of 4+ goals is only moderate. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 (81%) due to combined xG of 3.05, high share of matches above 1.5 (79%/86%) and solid shooting and on-target averages: 11.82 and 3.55 for home, 12.42 and 4.25 for away.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1). Karcag averages 1.57 points per match versus Tiszakécske’s 1.00 and wins 43% of matches compared to the visitors’ 21%, which favors the home side to win after 90 minutes. However, at half-time goals are often scarce: Karcag averages 0.29 goals by the break, Tiszakécske 0.36, and Karcag recorded a half-time draw in 7 matches (50% of appearances), which supports a draw at the break. Goals and decisive moments typically occur in the second half – the home side have a positive second-half goal difference of +6 and score an average of 0.93 goals in the second half with 93% of matches featuring at least one goal after the break, while the visitors’ defense concedes an average of 1.79 goals per match, increasing the likelihood that Karcag will secure the win after half-time.