Karcag SE vs Videoton: match statistics

Karcag SE remain unbeaten after five league matches, with a record of 1 win and 4 draws, while Videoton have lost 3 of their 5 games. The hosts’ advantage is particularly evident at home: they have drawn both of their two matches so far, but averaged 2.5 goals with a 24% shot conversion rate. Videoton lost both away games, averaging just 1 goal and recording a -3 goal difference on the road. Both defenses concede 2.5 goals per game in their respective home and away fixtures, and neither side has kept a clean sheet. The visitors should therefore have chances to score, but Videoton’s superior chance creation is not reflected in the numbers: their away xG stands at 1.04 compared with Karcag’s 1.31. A narrow home win is therefore the most likely outcome, although Karcag’s high number of draws clearly increases the risk of the points being shared.

The case for both teams to score is strengthened by their current form: BTTS occurred in 80% of Karcag SE’s and 60% of Videoton’s last 5 matches. Karcag averaged 2.0 goals scored during this period but also conceded 1.4, while Videoton scored 1.6 goals and conceded 1.4. The hosts create more chances, averaging 14.0 shots and recording a season xG of 1.74, while Videoton, despite a lower average of 1.0 goal per match, has posted an xG of 1.35 across their last five appearances. An important argument against confidence in the pick is Karcag SE’s 67% clean-sheet rate this season and the fact that only 33% of their matches featured BTTS. However, Videoton’s 0% clean-sheet rate and 2.5 goals conceded away from home clearly increase the likelihood of the hosts scoring. With the league BTTS average standing at 59%, the more likely scenario remains one in which both teams score at least one goal.

Karcag SE average 2.00 goals at home, while Videoton concede as many as 2.50 goals per away match, clearly strengthening the case for at least two goals. The hosts also create more chances: their average xG stands at 1.74 from 14.0 shots and 5.67 shots on target, compared with just 6.5 shots for Videoton. In the teams’ last five matches, games featuring at least three goals occurred in 60% and 80% of cases respectively, with each team averaging 1.6–2.0 goals. In addition, Videoton have failed to keep a clean sheet in every match, while both teams surpassed the 1.5-goal line in 67% and 100% of their matches this season. The strongest selection is Over 1.5, as even with a cautious projection of 2.80 goals, the two-goal line has significantly higher coverage than the higher thresholds.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Karcag SE win after 90 minutes, as the hosts were level at the break in 67% of their matches, while the proportion of half-time draws in the teams’ last five matches was as high as 80%. Videoton also failed to lead at half-time in any of the analyzed away matches, with 100% ending level after the first half. After the interval, Karcag’s advantage should increase: the hosts score an average of 1.33 goals and concede just 0.33 in the second half, whereas Videoton concede as many as 2.0 goals after the break away from home. Across the full match, Karcag average 2.0 goals scored and 0.67 conceded, while Videoton have lost all of their away matches and allow opponents to score an average of 2.5 goals. The hosts’ higher xG, 1.74 versus 1.04, along with 14.0 shots per match compared with the visitors’ 6.5, further support the X/1 outcome.