Kauno Žalgiris vs FA Šiauliai: match statistics

Kauno Žalgiris sit first and have scored 40 goals this season versus 21 for FA Šiauliai, giving the hosts a clear offensive edge. In the last 5 matches the hosts have scored 10 and conceded 3 (avg. 2.0 scored and 0.6 conceded per game), while the visitors have scored 6 and conceded 14 (avg. 1.2 scored and 2.8 conceded), clearly reflecting the gap in form and defense. At home Kauno averages 1.91 goals and concedes 0.64, possesses 61% possession, averages 14.73 shots and 4.91 on target per match with a 13% conversion rate, whereas Šiauliai away average 1.08 goals, concede 1.58, have 50% possession, 12.33 shots per game and a 9% conversion. xG also favors the hosts: Kauno’s average xG is 1.68 versus 1.45 for Šiauliai, and xG against is 1.05 versus 1.78 for the visitors, suggesting better control of chances. Considering 55% clean sheets for the hosts versus 17% for the visitors and 2.2 points per game in the hosts’ last 5 matches versus 0.6 for the visitors, I predict a Kauno win and assess the probabilities as 72% home, 18% draw and 10% away win.

The visitors present a strong signal for BTTS - Yes: 75% of matches with both teams scoring this season and 80% in the last 5 matches, while the home side have only 33% this season and 40% in the last 5. Offensively the home team average 2.0 goals (10 goals) and xG 1.7 in their last 5 games, and the visitors average 1.2 goals and xG 1.14, indicating both teams can create scoring chances. The visitors’ defense looks weaker short-term — they concede 2.8 goals per game in the last 5 and have xG against 1.83, whereas the home side concede only 0.6 goals and have xG against 0.87, giving a mixed signal regarding clean sheets. Considering the visitors’ high BTTS rate (75%/80%) and the fact the home team have recently scored 2.0 goals on average, I estimate the probability of BTTS at approximately 65% versus 35% for No Goal.

Combining attacking xG (home 1.25, away 1.45) with opponents’ defensive xG (home 1.63, away 1.78) yields expected xG ≈1.52 for Kauno Žalgiris and ≈1.54 for FA Šiauliai, i.e. ~3.06 expected goals combined. With λ=3.06 the Poisson model gives roughly 81% probability of Over 1.5 goals, 59% for Over 2.5 goals and 36% for Over 3.5 goals. Seasonal stats reinforce this: home side have 89% of matches Over 1.5, away side 75%, and in the last 5 matches the hosts had 60% Over 2.5 while the visitors had 100% Over 2.5. Additionally both teams combine for an average of 22.11 shots per game (9.78 + 12.33) with 8.25 shots on target (3.67 + 4.58) at a conversion rate of 9%, which increases the likelihood of translating xG into goals, so the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5.

In the last 5 matches Kauno Žalgiris led at the break in 3 of 5 fixtures (60%), scoring an average of 1.0 goal by half-time versus 0.75 for FA Šiauliai and conceding only 0.2 goals by half-time compared to 1.0 for the visitors. Over the same period the home side won 60% of matches (3 of 5), scoring an average of 2.0 goals and conceding 0.6 per game, while Šiauliai have only a 20% win rate, averaging 1.2 scored and 2.8 conceded. On the season level the away side have yet to win (winPercentage_away 0.0%) and draw frequently (drawPercentage_away 58%), indicating that draws—not turnarounds—are their primary outcome. Although the visitors’ xG is slightly higher (1.45 vs 1.25), Kauno’s advantage in first-half defense over the last 5 matches (0.2 conceded vs 1.0) and their tendency to lead at the break suggest the hosts will hold their lead. Therefore the strongest signal from the data is HT/FT 1/1 — the home side lead at half-time and win at full-time, while an alternative scenario is a draw at half-time and a home turnaround to win at the final whistle (X/1).