Kawkab Marrakech vs Raja Casablanca: match statistics

Raja Casablanca are favorites on paper: they sit 3rd in the table with 12 wins this season, while Kawkab Marrakech are 10th with only 6 wins. The biggest edge for the visitors is defense — Raja have conceded 9 goals this season and average 0.5 goals conceded per away match with 60% clean sheets, compared to Kawkab’s 19 goals conceded and an average of 0.82 goals conceded at home (36% clean sheets). The attacking metrics are relatively even: Kawkab score 1.36 goals per home match with an xG of 1.36, while Raja average 1.1 goals away with an xG of 1.21, with nearly identical shot conversion around 12% and average shots on target 3.9 versus 3.7. In the last 5 matches Raja have 3 wins, scoring 4 and conceding 2 (average 1.8 points per match), while Kawkab have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses with a 7-6 goal record and 1.4 points per match. Considering the superior defense, higher league position and better recent form, I predict an away win for Raja, although I expect a close game and a moderate chance of a draw.

Seasonal indicators strongly favor No BTTS: Kawkab have BTTS in only 17% of matches, Raja in 30%, versus a league average of 51%. Both teams record many clean sheets — 67% of Kawkab’s games and 60% of Raja’s — and season conceded goals are just 0.33 and 0.50 respectively, reducing the likelihood both will score. Form signals are mixed: in the last 5 matches Kawkab had BTTS in 80% and Raja 0%, but Raja concede on average 0.4 goals versus Kawkab’s 1.2 over the same period, giving the visitors a defensive edge. Kawkab create more chances (xG 1.58 vs 1.21 and 12.83 shots vs 9.1), yet season goal totals (21 vs 26) and the high rate of clean sheets suggest that even with superiority in chance volume one side may fail to score. Considering low seasonal BTTS rates (17% and 30%), high clean sheet shares (67% and 60%) and Raja’s better defense in the last 5 matches (0.4 conceded), I back 'No' with an estimated 78% vs 22% for 'Yes.'

Calculated xG points to expected goals: home ≈1.44 (average of xG_for 1.58 and xG_against_away 1.29), away ≈0.98 (average of xG_for 1.21 and xG_against_home 0.75), total ≈2.42. Despite this total, seasonal indicators show these teams rarely exceed 2.5 goals — season Over25 is 17% for Kawkab and 10% for Raja (average ≈13.5%), while the league average is 39%. Additionally, both teams have a high share of clean sheets: 67% for Kawkab and 60% for Raja, and BTTS occurrences are only 17% and 30% respectively, which favors a lower total number of goals. For these reasons I assess the probability of over 1.5 goals as fairly high (75%), but the strongest signal is Under 2.5 (72%) due to the low seasonal Over25 and high clean sheet rates. Consequently I recommend playing the Under 2.5 line as the most valuable selection.

The first half looks low-scoring: the home side concedes an average of 0.08 goals by half-time, the visitors 0.00, and the share of clean halves is 92% for Kawkab and 100% for Raja, so a draw at the break is clearly likely. For the full 90 minutes the favorites are the hosts — their xG is 1.58 versus the visitors’ 1.21, they average 12.83 shots compared to the opponents’ 9.1 and 4.58 on target versus 3.7, while also limiting the opponent’s xG to 0.75 vs 1.29, which together with a higher average points tally (2.0 vs 1.8) argues in Kawkab’s favor. Additionally, the hosts are dangerous late and after the break: they have scored 6 goals in minutes 76–90 versus 1 for the visitors and have an average points return after half-time of 1.75 versus 1.3 for the visitors, which increases the chance of a turnaround following a tied half. As a result the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win after 90 minutes (X/1 — 36%); other realistic options are draw/draw (X/X — 18%) and the home side leading from start to finish (1/1 — 12%).