Kedus Giorgis vs Sidama Bunna: match statistics

Sidama Bunna are the match favorites: they have 15 wins this season versus Kedus Giorgis' 9, and a superior goal record 35 scored to 24 and 17 conceded to 27. In the last 5 matches Sidama won 4 times and average 2.4 points per game, while Kedus have 3 wins and average 2.0 points per game. The visitors register 3.29 shots on target per game versus the hosts' 2.62 and have a higher finishing rate 16% vs 11%, with both sides averaging xG of 1.32, which highlights Sidama's advantage in chance conversion (around 98% of xG converted to goals vs about 70% for the hosts). The home defense is, however, relatively strong locally — Kedus concede 0.79 goals per home game and keep 43% clean sheets versus 0.86 and 36% for Sidama away — this explains a possible draw or a narrow home defeat. Considering the leaders' position, superior shot efficiency and recent form, I assign 55% chance of a Sidama win, 25% for a draw and 20% for a Kedus victory.

Kedus Giorgis as the home side has a season BTTS rate of only 21% and keeps a clean sheet in 79% of matches, conceding an average of 0.36 goals per game, which strongly supports No Goal. Sidama Bunna posts a season BTTS of 50% and averages 1.29 goals scored vs 0.86 conceded, but in the last five away matches the visitors had only 20% BTTS and conceded an average of 0.6 goals, i.e. recently they have been conceding less. However, the hosts in their last 5 matches recorded BTTS at 80% and conceded on average 1.4 goals while scoring 1.6 on average, showing short-term defensive instability for Kedus. xG and shot counts are similar (attacking xG 1.28 vs 1.32; xG against 1.03 vs 1.12; on-target shots avg 3.14 vs 3.29), so attacking capabilities are comparable, but the hosts’ season profile remains key. Considering the dominant seasonal share of home clean sheets (79%) and the conflicting but short-term signals from the last 5 matches, I view the BTTS - No scenario as more likely and price it at 65% versus 35% for BTTS - Yes.

xG and average-goal analysis indicates a moderately high scoring potential: estimated home xG is (1.28 + 1.12)/2 = 1.20, away xG is (1.32 + 1.03)/2 = 1.18, totaling 2.38 expected goals. Seasonally both teams have 57% of matches over 1.5 goals, providing a baseline above 50% for the 1.5 line, and in the last 5 fixtures the home side had 80% of matches over 2.5 and scored 8 goals, which raises offensive risk. At the same time the home team recorded 79% clean sheets at home and only 14% of its seasonal matches finish over 2.5, while the visitors have 43% of matches over 2.5, so the 2.5 line is balanced and I give Over 2.5 48% vs Under 52%. Seasonal data show a clear Under edge at 3.5 — only 7% of home matches and 21% of away matches exceed 3.5 goals, therefore I assess Over 3.5 at 12%. The strongest signal from the data is to play Over 1.5 (82%), based on the 2.38 total xG, the seasonal 57% for both teams and the current home form.

Kedus led at the break in 4 of 14 matches (29%) and were level at half-time in 10 of 14 (71%), keeping a clean sheet at the break in 93% of games and scoring an average of 0.36 goals by half-time versus Sidama’s 0.64. Over the season the home side win 57% of matches and score 1.21 goals per game on average, while Sidama score 1.29 and concede 0.86 on average; xG stands at 1.28 for Kedus versus 1.32 for Sidama, suggesting balanced attacking output but a defensive edge for the hosts. In the second half Kedus average 1.14 goals, collect 1.86 points in second halves and win the second half 50% of the time, indicating they often break a halftime deadlock. Therefore the strongest signal is Half-Time/Full-Time draw at the break and home win at full-time (X/1) — I estimate this scenario at roughly 34% probability, given a 71% chance of a halftime draw and about a 48% conversion of such draws into home victories.