Kocaelispor vs Fatih Karagümrük: match statistics

Kocaelispor (10th) possesses a clear defensive edge: at home they concede just 0.75 goals per game and keep a clean sheet in 44% of matches, whereas Fatih Karagümrük concede 1.94 goals on the road and have only 6% clean sheets. In attack the hosts score 0.94 goals at home with an xG of 1.31, while the visitors score 0.75 on the road with an xG of 1.21; the hosts also produce more shots (12.31 vs 10.88) and slightly more shots on target (3.56 vs 3.38). Although Kocaelispor’s last 5 overall form reads 0 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss (0.8 pts per game) and Fatih have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses (1.4 pts per game), the visitors’ poor away metrics (75% losses away, only 6% wins) are a significant negative. The visitors failed to score in 44% of away matches versus 31% for the hosts, and the efficiency advantage (conversion 8% vs 7%) leads me to tip a Kocaelispor win.

I back BTTS - Yes because both teams produce meaningful xG figures: Kocaelispor 1.12 and Fatih 1.21, totaling ~2.33 xG which supports goals at both ends. The visitors have clear defensive issues — they concede 1.94 goals per away match on average and register only a 6% clean sheet rate, while the hosts score 1.0 goal at home on average and generate 3.13 shots on target, so Kocaelispor’s scoring probability is significant. Season BTTS rates are 56% for Fatih and 38% for Kocaelispor, but in the last 5 matches Kocaelispor had BTTS in 60% and Fatih in 40%, giving a mixed signal yet overall leaning toward both teams scoring. Additionally, the league posts BTTS at 55% and an average of 2.61 goals per game, and season tallies (Fatih 28 scored/53 conceded, hosts 26 scored/36 conceded) indicate a higher risk of conceding than of a goalless draw. Based on this, I rate the “both teams to score” scenario stronger at 65% vs 35%, mainly due to the 1.12/1.21 xG split, the visitors’ high average goals conceded (1.94) and their low clean sheet percentage (6%).

The forecast is based on xG: Kocaelispor has xG_for 1.12, Fatih has xG_for 1.21, while xG_against are 1.50 for Kocaelispor and 1.68 for Fatih — the average of these pairs yields 1.40 expected goals for the home side and 1.36 for the away side (total 2.76). Both teams have a high frequency of matches with over 1.5 goals: Kocaelispor 75% and Fatih 81%, therefore I estimate a 78% chance of Over 1.5. The total expected goals of 2.76 is above the 2.5 threshold, and Fatih records 63% of seasonal matches with >2.5 and 60% in the last 5, so I give a moderate edge to Over 2.5 (58%). The 3.5 line looks unlikely — season-wide only 19% of matches for both teams exceed that mark, so Under 3.5 at 82% is justified. Additionally, Fatih concedes goals in 94% of matches and BTTS is 56% for the visitors, while Kocaelispor scores on average 1.0 goal with 10% conversion, whereas Fatih scores 0.75 with 7% conversion, which strengthens the signal for Over 1.5.

First-half statistics clearly favor Kocaelispor: the hosts led at the break in 38% of matches, scoring an average of 0.69 goals by half-time versus 0.25 for Fatih, and keeping a clean sheet at the break in 63% of games. Fatih struggle away – they win only 6% of away matches and concede an average of 1.94 goals per away game, limiting their ability to produce a turnaround. Kocaelispor at home have a 31% win rate and higher shot efficiency (10% vs 7%); with xG of 1.12 for the hosts versus 1.21 for the visitors, the hosts are more effective at converting chances. The visitors, however, score more often in the second half (on average 0.5 goals after the break as the away team versus 0.31 for the hosts), so a draw or a late equalizer is possible. In summary, with a 38% chance of the hosts leading at half-time and only 6% away wins for Fatih, the most likely HT/FT outcome is 1/1 (estimated 29% probability).