Kokand-1912 vs Andijan: match statistics

Kokand-1912 is the favorite based on form and efficiency: the hosts have scored 7 goals in their last 5 matches, with a record of 1 win and 4 draws and an average of 1.4 points per game, while Andijan scored 3 goals in the same period, winning 1 and losing 4, yielding 0.6 points per game. Kokand at home averages 3.67 shots on target and 8.33 total attempts per match with a 16% conversion rate, translating to 1.33 goals per game; Andijan away records 1.33 shots on target, 7.67 attempts and a 4% conversion, i.e. only 0.33 goals per match. The hosts have 0% of home matches without scoring, whereas the visitors fail to score in 67% of away games, which significantly lowers Andijan’s chances. Defensively Kokand concedes 1.33 goals per home match versus 2.0 conceded by Andijan away, and xG 1.06 versus 1.01 indicates the hosts’ advantage is also reflected in chance quality. Based on this I assess the probability of a Kokand win at 65%, a draw at 25% and an Andijan win at 10%.

Season statistics clearly favor No BTTS: Kokand-1912 scores 1.75 goals per game (xG 1.66) and concedes 0.75, while Andijan scores only 0.33 goals per game (xG 1.01) and concedes 2.00. Kokand averages 5.5 shots on target and 13.25 total shots with a 13% conversion, whereas Andijan has 1.33 shots on target and a 4% conversion, which significantly reduces the visitors’ chances of scoring. Hosts have a clean sheet in 50% of matches this season, and Andijan 0% clean sheets, meaning Kokand keeps a clean sheet in half of their games. Although Kokand had BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches and Andijan only 20%, the visitors’ lower seasonal efficiency and the hosts’ shooting superiority lead me to a 70% forecast for No (No Goal/clean sheet expected) and 30% for Yes (BTTS - Yes).

The hosts score an average of 1.75 goals per match, while Andijan concedes 2.00 on average, which in a simple calculation yields about 1.88 goals for Kokand; averaging xG (1.66 for the hosts vs 1.26 against Andijan) gives ~1.46 xG, and after accounting for the hosts' higher conversion (13% vs 4%) I project 1.70 goals for Kokand. The visitors have a seasonal return of only 0.33 goals, a low conversion rate of 4% and an average of 1.33 shots on target per match, with xG 1.01 and the hosts' defense conceding xG against 1.02; given that Andijan failed to score in 67% of matches, I give them 0.60 goals. The total projected goals are 2.30, which strongly favors the Over 1.5 line (sezonOver15: 75% for the hosts and 67% for the visitors), therefore Over 1.5 is the strongest signal. The 2.5 line is less clear (I estimate Over 2.5 at ~44%) due to the visitors' poor conversion and the hosts' partly solid defense, and Over 3.5 looks unlikely (I estimate ~18%) consistent with seasonal 25%/0% for Over 3.5.

Kokand-1912 shows a clear first-half edge: they led at the break in 2 of the recorded matches (50%) and score on average 0.75 goals by half-time, whereas Andijan averages 0.0 goals in the first 45 minutes and concedes 0.67 goals by half-time. Over the full match the hosts average 1.75 goals with xG 1.66 and 5.5 shots on target, versus 0.33 goals, xG 1.01 and 1.33 shots on target for the visitors; finishing efficiency is 13.0% vs 4.0%, which clearly favors Kokand. Additionally, the hosts keep a clean sheet at half-time in 75% of matches and average 1.25 goals in the second half, while Andijan concedes on average 1.33 goals after the break, so a lead at the break is likely to be maintained. Based on this, the most probable scenario is the hosts leading at half-time and winning the match (HT/FT 1/1) — I estimate this at 48%. Alternatives are leading at half-time and drawing (HT/FT 1/X) at 12% or a draw both at half-time and full-time (HT/FT X/X) at 10%; an away win remains unlikely given their shot average of 0.33 and recorded win percentage of 0.0 (winPercentage_away=0.0).