Kolding IF vs Fredericia: match statistics

Fredericia are 3rd in the table, while Kolding IF sit 9th, and over the course of the season the visitors have lost only 1 of their 7 matches, compared with 3 defeats for the hosts. Away from home, Fredericia create significantly more chances, averaging 24 shots and 7.33 shots on target per match, while their xG stands at 2.49 compared with Kolding’s 1.53 at home. The hosts concede an average of 1.67 goals on their own turf, are yet to keep a clean sheet, and have lost 67% of such matches. Fredericia boast the stronger defense, conceding an average of just 1 goal away from home and keeping a clean sheet in 33% of their matches. Both teams have taken 7 points from their last five matches, but the superior quality of the chances created by the visitors makes Fredericia the more convincing winner pick.

The case for both teams to score is primarily strengthened by Kolding’s current form: in their last 5 matches, BTTS landed in 100% of games, with the team scoring an average of 2.2 goals and conceding 1.8. Fredericia have scored in every match this season, while their average xG stands at a high 2.49, including 2.43 across their last five appearances. The hosts create plenty of chances, averaging 24.25 shots and 9.5 shots on target per match, which should be enough to breach a visiting defense conceding an average of 1.0 goal. The main risk to the pick is Kolding’s very solid season-long defense, which has kept a clean sheet in 75% of matches and concedes just 0.25 goals on average; however, their recent average of goals conceded has risen to 1.8. Therefore, I rate the scenario in which both teams score as slightly more likely than a match in which at least one side fails to score (BTTS - No).

Kolding have conceded just 0.25 goals per game at home so far and have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their matches, limiting Fredericia’s potential despite their average of 1.67 goals scored. Neither team has recorded a match with over 3.5 goals in the current campaign, while the percentage of matches under this line stands at 100% for both sides. Kolding’s current form provides a signal in favor of goals: over their last 5 matches, they have scored 2.2 goals and conceded 1.8 per game, with all of these fixtures going over 2.5 goals. At the same time, Fredericia have conceded only 0.8 goals per game in their last 5 appearances, making a result in the 2-3 goal range more likely than an open exchange leading to four goals. Therefore, Under 3.5 goals is best supported by the hosts’ defensive stability so far and the consistent absence of very high-scoring results for either side.

Kolding IF has a clear advantage in its current home form: it averages 1.25 goals scored, concedes just 0.25, and has kept a clean sheet in 75% of its matches. In their last five games, the hosts were leading at the break in 60% of cases and scored an average of 1.4 goals before half-time, while Fredericia were ahead in only 20% of such matches and averaged 0.4 goals. Kolding also creates more high-quality chances, with an xG of 2.78 compared with the opponents’ 2.49, and averages 9.5 shots on target against Fredericia’s 7.33. After the break, the hosts are particularly solid defensively, having conceded no goals in the second half across their four home matches to date, while scoring an average of 1.25 goals themselves. The most likely scenario is therefore for Kolding to take the lead before half-time and maintain it until the final whistle, making the HT/FT selection 1/1.