Kolos Kovalivka vs Kudrivka: match statistics

Kolos Kovalivka holds a clear defensive edge and superior form: at home they concede on average 0.69 goals per match and record clean sheets in 46% of games, whereas Kudrivka concedes 1.77 goals away and has only an 8% clean sheet rate. The hosts generate more high-quality chances — average xG at home is 1.34 versus the visitors’ 1.17 xG, and average shots on target are 4.54 vs 2.62, with conversion rates of 8% vs 6%. Form further favors Kolos: over the last 5 matches the hosts have averaged 2.2 points (3 wins, 2 draws), while Kudrivka averages 0.2 points with 4 losses in their last five. Goal stats show both teams on 27 goals for the season, but Kolos score 0.85 goals per home match versus Kudrivka’s 0.69 away, which—combined with stronger defending—gives the hosts the advantage. The table gap (6th vs 13th) and a marked superiority in home performances lead me to back a Kolos victory.

Seasonal indicators favor BTTS: Kolos Kovalivka has 77% of home matches with both teams scoring, while Kudrivka has 46% of such away games. In the last 5 matches the picture is mixed — Kolos has only 20% BTTS, scored 7 goals (avg 1.4) and conceded 1 (0.2 per match), whereas Kudrivka has 60% BTTS, scored 3 goals (0.6 per match) and conceded 8. Kudrivka generates on average xG 1.17 per match with 10.69 shots, but actually scores 0.69 goals (conversion 6%), which shows chance creation with poor finishing; Kolos at home faces xG against of 1.74 and concedes 1.54 goals seasonally, so the hosts remain exposed at the back. Additionally, Kolos has only 15% clean sheets seasonally and 69% of home matches over 2.5 goals, and Kudrivka has conceded 43 goals this season, increasing the likelihood of at least one away goal. Considering Kolos’s dominant seasonal signal 77% vs the visitors’ 46%, together with xG and the high number of goals conceded by Kudrivka, I assess BTTS probability at 65% vs 35% and tip 'BTTS - Yes'.

Both teams have a high percentage of matches over 1.5 goals: Kolos 85% and Kudrivka 77%, which gives a strong signal for Over 1.5. Based on seasonal averages of goals scored and conceded (Kolos 1.38 scored vs Kudrivka 1.77 conceded; Kudrivka 0.69 scored vs Kolos 1.54 conceded) I estimate about 1.58 goals for the home side and 1.12 for the visitors, totaling ~2.70. xG shows moderate creation potential (Kolos xG 0.98, Kudrivka xG 1.17), but the difference in shot conversion (Kolos 16% conversion vs Kudrivka 6%) favors the home team in turning xG into actual goals. Form confirms this picture: Kolos in the last 5 matches scored 7 goals (1.4 avg) and conceded 1 (0.2 avg), while Kudrivka scored 3 and conceded 8 (0.6 and 1.6 avg), so the strongest and safest line to play is Over 1.5.

Kolos Kovalivka has a clear form advantage: in the last 5 matches they have 3 wins and 2 draws (60% wins), while Kudrivka in their last 5 have 4 losses and 1 draw (0% wins). At half-time Kolos averages 0.69 goals and have been leading at the break in 6 of 13 matches (46%), whereas Kudrivka have not scored by half-time and have not led at the break in any of their 13 games (0%). Additionally, Kudrivka concede many goals in the 0–15 minute window (6 conceded), and Kolos scored 2 goals in that period, which increases the hosts’ chance of a goal before half-time. Kolos also have better shot conversion of 16% versus 6% for the visitors, and despite xG of 0.98 compared to 1.17 for Kudrivka the hosts convert chances into goals more efficiently. Therefore the most likely scenario is Kolos leading at half-time and winning full-time (1/1).