Kotwica Kórnik vs Kalisz: match statistics

Kalisz have a clearly superior record this season: they have won both matches without conceding a goal, while Kotwica Kórnik have lost two games, conceding 8 goals in total. At home, Kotwica allow their opponents an average of 6 goals per match, while their average xG against stands at a massive 3.06, compared with just 1.34 xG created in attack. The hosts are capable of finding the net, having scored 13 goals in their last five appearances, but they have also conceded 16 and lost three of those matches. Kalisz have won 3 of their last 5 games and have averaged more points over that span than Kotwica—1.8 compared with 1.2. Home advantage could help the hosts score, but the visitors’ significantly stronger defense makes a Kalisz victory the more likely outcome.

Kotwica recorded BTTS in as many as 80% of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 2.6 goals while also conceding a very high 3.2 goals. Kalisz had BTTS in only 20% of their last five appearances, but their average of 0.8 goals scored is supported by the opponent’s weak defense, which allowed opponents an xG of 1.73. The hosts created just 0.96 xG themselves, while Kalisz have allowed opponents 1.53 xG in recent matches and conceded an average of 1.2 goals. An additional argument for both teams to score is the league’s high BTTS frequency of 67%, along with an average of 3.44 goals per match. The signal is not conclusive due to Kalisz’s lower attacking efficiency, but Kotwica’s defensive vulnerability slightly shifts the prediction towards BTTS - Yes.

Kotwica’s last five matches have been very open, averaging 5.8 goals per game, as the team scored 2.6 and conceded as many as 3.2 goals. However, this figure is clearly higher than the quality of the chances: Kotwica averaged 0.96 xG, while their opponents averaged 1.73 xG, producing a projection closer to 2.69 goals than to almost six. In their last five matches, Kalisz averaged 2.0 total goals, with 0.8 scored and 1.2 conceded, while their average xG stood at 0.87 in attack and 1.53 against. The estimated total of 2.65 goals remains below the 3.5 line, making Under 3.5 the stronger option despite the high league average of 3.44 goals.

Full-season data is very limited, so greater weight should be given to the teams’ form over their last five matches: Kalisz won 60% of their games and averaged 1.8 points per match, compared with Kotwica’s 40% win rate and 1.2 points per match. The visitors have been relatively more stable before the break, conceding an average of 0.6 goals during the first half, compared with the hosts’ 1.33, while Kotwica were trailing at half-time in 67% of their recent matches. A draw at half-time nevertheless remains the most likely outcome after 45 minutes, as Kalisz were level at the break in 20% of their matches and their games produced an average of just 1.2 first-half goals. After the interval, the advantage should shift towards Kalisz: Kotwica conceded an average of 2.33 goals in second halves, compared with just 0.6 goals conceded by the visitors. The HT/FT scenario of a draw at half-time and a Kalisz win at full-time best combines a cautious opening with the hosts’ clearly weaker defensive performance after the break.