KR vs Keflavík: match statistics

In the last five matches KR scored 17 goals (3.4 per game) and conceded 8 (1.6 per game), while Keflavík scored 13 goals (2.6 per game) and let in 9 (1.8 per game). KR’s recent record is 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss (10 points), whereas Keflavík has 3 wins and 2 draws (11 points) — the visitors are unbeaten in their last five. Keflavík sit 6th in the table versus KR in 7th and have a higher points average over the last five matches (2.2 vs 2.0), giving them a slight edge in consistency. At the same time the hosts have been more productive offensively in terms of goals (3.4 vs 2.6), so they can threaten going forward, while the difference in goals conceded is marginal (1.6 vs 1.8). Therefore I forecast a narrow away victory, assuming an even contest with potential goals from both sides.

Seasonal averages in the provided data are empty (values 0.0), so I assess the match based on the last 5 games and league data. In the last 5 matches KR averaged 3.4 goals scored (17 total) and 1.6 goals conceded (8 total), while Keflavík averaged 2.6 goals scored (13 total) and 1.8 goals conceded (9 total). BTTS is 60% for KR and 100% for Keflavík in the last 5 matches, and BTTS is 100% across the league, which strongly favors both teams scoring. xG confirms the offensive potential: Keflavík has 2.85 xG_for and 1.61 xG_against, KR has 1.62 xG_for and 1.17 xG_against, so both sides create chances and concede goals. Therefore I predict BTTS - Yes with 90% probability and No with 10%, because the combination of 100% league BTTS, 100% Keflavík BTTS and high average goals (KR 3.4 vs Keflavík 2.6) and xG (2.85 vs 1.62) provides the strongest signal for both teams to score.

In the last 5 matches KR averaged 3.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, while Keflavík averaged 2.6 scored and 1.8 conceded; both teams had 80% of matches over 2.5 goals in that period, with BTTS at 60% (KR) and 100% (Keflavík). From an xG perspective, KR has 1.62 xG per game and Keflavík 2.85; KR’s defense conceded 1.17 xG on average and Keflavík’s defense 1.61, which when averaged yields expected values of about 1.62 goals for KR and 2.01 for Keflavík (total ~3.63). With lambda = 3.63, a Poisson distribution gives probability of over 1.5 goals ≈ 88%, over 2.5 ≈ 70% and over 3.5 ≈ 49%, reinforcing a tendency toward higher-scoring games. Additionally, the sides combined have scored 30 goals in the last 5 matches (17 KR and 13 Keflavík), and current forms (KR: lwwdw, Keflavík: dwwwd) indicate a sustained offensive trend. On this basis the strongest and most justified signal is Over 2.5 goals with an estimated probability of about 70%.

KR led at the break in 4 of the last 5 matches (80%) and averaged 1.8 first-half goals versus Keflavík’s 0.6, which strongly favors the home side at half-time. Over full matches KR averages 3.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, while Keflavík records 2.6 scored and 1.8 conceded (3.4 vs 2.6; 1.6 vs 1.8), indicating a clearer offensive edge for KR. The league shows 100% of matches with at least one goal in the first half, and KR kept a first-half clean sheet in 60% of their last five home fixtures, reducing the likelihood of a half-time draw. Therefore the most probable scenario is KR leading at the break and winning the match (1/1) — I assign this a 55% probability, with alternatives 1/X at 15% and 1/2 at 10%.