KTP vs Haka: match statistics

KTP is the clear favorite: the hosts have won 5 of their last 5 matches and boast a 100% home win rate, scoring an average of 1.33 goals per home match with an average xG of 2.01. Haka have significant issues scoring away — the visitors average only 0.33 goals per away match, failed to score in 67% of away games and generate just 1.29 xG. Chance quality favors KTP: the hosts average 16.67 shots and 6 on target at home versus Haka’s 9 shots and 3.33 on target away, confirming superiority in chance creation. Defensively both teams show similar conceded-goal averages (0.33 conceded at home for KTP and 0.33 conceded away for Haka), but Haka have shipped 8 goals in their last 5 matches while KTP have conceded only 2, which further supports the hosts.

The strongest signal against BTTS is the high clean sheet rate of Haka and the league as a whole: Haka have a seasonal 67% clean sheets rate, while the league average is 69%, indicating frequent shutouts. Additionally Haka score only 0.33 goals per away match on the season, and KTP have conceded an average of 0.4 goals in their last 5 matches (2 conceded in 5), so the visitors face difficulty scoring. It is true that KTP have a seasonal goals average of 2.5 and a seasonal BTTS rate of 83%, but KTP’s BTTS share in the last 5 matches dropped to 40% (2 of 5), suggesting more wins with a clean sheet. xG metrics give mixed signals: KTP xG is 1.67 versus Haka 1.29, and Haka in the last 5 matches have xG_for 1.39 and have conceded 8 goals (1.6 per game); however, considering the seasonal 0.33 away goals and the guests’ 67% clean sheets, the 'No Goal' scenario looks more likely. I estimate BTTS chances at 35% for 'BTTS - Yes' and 65% for 'No', therefore I recommend taking 'No'.

I project a total of approximately 2.55 goals: home ~1.65, away ~0.90. As a starting point I used xG and form — KTP xG 1.67 vs Haka average xG conceded 0.93 yields a baseline ~1.30 for the home side, and Haka xG 1.29 vs KTP xG conceded 1.20 yields ~1.25 for the away side; I adjusted these values accounting for KTP’s 13 average shots and 19% conversion and Haka’s 9 shots with only 4% conversion, as well as recent form over the last 5 matches (KTP 7 scored/2 conceded, Haka 5/8). Seasonal stats support KTP’s offensive edge at home: seasonOver15Percentage_home 100% and seasonOver25Percentage_home 83%, while Haka away has 0% in these categories. From a Poisson model with a mean of 2.55 the probabilities are: Over 1.5 ≈72%, Over 2.5 ≈47% and Over 3.5 ≈25%, therefore the strongest signal is over 1.5.

KTP is the clear favorite for the final result: they average 2.5 goals at home versus Haka’s 0.33 away, have higher xG (1.67 vs 1.29), average 13 shots with 5.67 on target compared to the opponent’s 9 and 3.33, and a higher conversion rate of 19% vs 4%. However, the imbalance between goals before and after the break favors scoring in the second half — the hosts average 2.5 second-half goals versus 0.33 for the visitors and have scored 6 goals in minutes 76–90, indicating late deciders. At Half-Time a draw is more likely: KTP average 0.67 goals by the break, Haka 0.0, and Haka keep a clean sheet in 67% of away matches this season, so the probability of a goalless or level HT is elevated. Given the hosts’ stronger finish, I assign the largest share to the scenario draw at the break and KTP turnaround to win the match (X/1) — 36%. Overall I give KTP a 65% chance to win (1/1 22% + X/1 36% + 2/1 7%), 20% for a full-time draw and 15% for a Haka win, reflecting KTP’s form (5 wins in their last 5 matches) and Haka’s poor away goal average of 0.33.