Kuressaare vs Harju Jalgpallikool: match statistics

Harju Jalgpallikool holds a clear advantage heading into this match: away they average 2.0 goals scored and concede only 0.5 per game, whereas Kuressaare at home scores 1.5 and concedes 1.5. In the last 5 matches the visitors have netted 7 goals and recorded 3 wins, while the hosts have scored 4, won just 1 game and conceded 11 goals in that period. The visitors generate more high-quality chances — away xG is 1.8 versus 1.54 for the hosts, and shots per game are 16.5 versus 12.5, although Kuressaare have more shots on target (6 vs 4). Defensively Harju’s superiority is pronounced: 50% clean sheets away and 0% of matches without scoring, compared to 0% clean sheets and 50% of matches without a goal for the hosts. Considering average points in the last five matches (1.8 vs 0.6), the goal difference and league positions (4th vs 9th), I forecast an away win and estimate their chance at approximately 70%.

Harju Jalgpallikool has a clear attacking profile: scoring on average 2.0 goals per game with xG 1.80 and averaging 16.5 shots per match, while Kuressaare concedes on average 1.67 goals per game (xG against 2.23), which significantly increases the visitors’ likelihood to score. Kuressaare averages 1.0 goal per game (xG 1.12) and in the last 5 matches had 0.8 goals per game, but their last 5 xG_for is 1.45, so they can create chances and potentially respond. Seasonal indicators are mixed: BTTS is 33% for Kuressaare and 50% for Harju, the league BTTS is 56%, while Harju also has 50% clean sheets, which reduces the certainty of the outcome. Considering Harju’s shooting advantage (16.5 vs 7.33 shots) and the fact Kuressaare has been conceding 2.2 goals on average in the last 5 matches, the Both Teams To Score scenario is stronger; therefore I assess BTTS at 70% 'yes' vs 30% 'no' and choose 'yes'.

Both teams have 100% of matches this season over 1.5 goals (home 100%, away 100%), which is a strong historical argument for Over 1.5. Based on xG: Kuressaare has xG_for 1.12 and Harju xG_against 2.09, implying about 1.61 expected goals for the hosts; Harju has xG_for 1.80 versus Kuressaare xG_against 2.23, which yields about 2.02 for the visitors, totalling 3.63 expected goals. The league averages 3.12 goals per match, and Harju averages 16.5 shots, so Over 2.5 also looks likely (I estimate 68%), although season-long Kuressaare have only 33% Over 2.5 and Harju 50% (in the last 5 matches Kuressaare 60%, Harju 40%). Over 3.5 I view with less confidence (around 30%) due to 0% Over 3.5 for Harju and only 33% for Kuressaare, therefore the strongest recommendation is Over 1.5.

Season statistics clearly favor Harju: they have a 100% win rate versus Kuressaare’s 33%, score an average of 2.0 goals per match versus 1.0 and have higher xG (1.80 vs 1.12), indicating an offensive advantage for the visitors. At half-time Harju led in 50% of matches, and a half-time draw also occurs in 50% of their games, while Kuressaare lead at the break in 0% of cases, so a draw at HT is realistic and frequent. After the break the visitors score an average of 1.0 goal (scored_2hg_avg_away 1.0), and the hosts concede an average of 1.0 goal in the second half (conceded_2hg_avg_home 1.0), which increases Harju’s chances to turn the result in their favor after the interval. Additionally Harju average 16.5 shots per game vs the hosts’ 7.33 and have a lower xG against (2.09 vs 2.23), and in the last 5 matches Harju have won 60% of games vs 20% for Kuressaare, so the hosts maintaining a draw looks unlikely. Consequently I assess the most probable scenario as Half-Time draw / Full-Time away win (X/2) at 45% probability; 2/2 at 35%, 2/X at 13%, X/X at 3%, X/1 at 2% and 2/1 at 2%; scenarios with the home side leading at half-time are assigned 0% due to their 0% half-time leads.