Kuressaare vs Tammeka: match statistics

Tammeka sit 5th, while Kuressaare are eighth, and over the course of the season the visitors have recorded 13 wins compared with the hosts’ 8. Current form also favors Tammeka: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches and conceded just 4 goals, compared with Kuressaare’s 3 wins and 6 goals conceded. The visitors create more chances away from home, averaging 16 shots and 5.38 shots on target per match, while their xG stands at 1.81 compared with Kuressaare’s 1.52 at home. The hosts more frequently struggle to find the net, failing to score in 46% of their home matches, whereas Tammeka have been held scoreless in only 23% of away games. However, Kuressaare have recently shown excellent attacking efficiency, scoring 16 goals in five matches, which is why the most likely outcome is a closely contested game ending in a narrow away win.

The BTTS - Yes pick has a moderate edge, as Kuressaare scored in an average of 3.2 of their last five matches, compared with 2.0 for Tammeka. During this period, the hosts created chances worth 2.30 xG, while both defenses allowed opponents an average of 1.55 xG, supporting the chances of each side finding the net. However, the season BTTS percentages are only average, at 50% for Kuressaare and 46% for Tammeka, compared with the league average of 59%; therefore, the advantage of the "Yes" scenario is not substantial. The main risk to this pick is that Kuressaare kept a clean sheet in 33% of their matches and Tammeka in 38%, but the hosts' attacking form and Tammeka's 5.38 shots on target per match point towards at least one goal for both teams.

Kuressaare are in excellent attacking form: they have averaged 3.2 goals over their last 5 matches, with an average xG of 2.30. Tammeka also create chances regularly, averaging 16.0 shots and 5.38 shots on target per match, while their season xG stands at 1.81. The hosts concede an average of 1.0 goal in the league, but their xG against is as high as 1.65, suggesting vulnerability to opposition chances. In addition, Tammeka concede an average of 1.77 goals away from home, while Kuressaare score 1.33 at home, giving both sides a realistic chance of getting on the scoresheet. Over 1.5 goals is the stronger option, as at least 2 goals were scored in 69% of Tammeka’s matches, supported by a projection of 2.83 total goals for the game.

Kuressaare has a clearly stronger home record: they win 58% of their matches, score an average of 1.33 goals and concede just 1.00, while Tammeka allows opponents an average of 1.77 goals away from home. The hosts have been level at half-time in as many as 58% of their matches, but Tammeka’s weak first-half defense, conceding an average of 1.31 goals, increases Kuressaare’s chances of taking the lead before the break. In their last five matches, Kuressaare averaged 2.0 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded before half-time, leading after 45 minutes in 60% of those games. After the break, the hosts still look solid, scoring an average of 0.92 goals and conceding 0.33, which supports them holding on to a favourable result. Tammeka boasts a high xG of 1.81 and averages 5.38 shots on target, so a response from the visitors cannot be ruled out, but the scenario of Kuressaare leading at the break and securing a full-time victory remains the strongest HT/FT outcome.