Kustošija vs Mladost Ždralovi: match statistics

Mladost Ždralovi are showing clearly superior current form: they remain unbeaten in their last 5 matches, winning 3 and drawing 2, while Kustošija have recorded just 1 victory. The visitors have scored 10 goals during this period, averaging 2.0 per match, compared with Kustošija’s 8 goals, while both teams have conceded 7. Mladost’s advantage therefore stems primarily from their more effective attack and a return of 2.2 points per game across their last five matches, compared with the hosts’ 1.2. Kustošija can rely on home advantage and the fact that both teams began the current season with a 1:1 draw; however, the hosts’ run of three consecutive draws highlights their difficulty in turning evenly matched games into victories. A narrow win for Mladost Ždralovi is the most likely outcome, although the high number of draws in the data also increases the probability of the points being shared.

The strongest signal for BTTS - Yes comes from current form: in their last 5 matches, both teams recorded a Goal/Goal outcome in 80% of games. During this period, Kustošija averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while Mladost Ždralovi scored as many as 2.0 goals per match and conceded 1.4. The hosts are also creating a solid number of chances, with an average xG of 1.36 across their last five appearances, while the visitors, despite a lower xG of 1.06, consistently demonstrated their finishing ability with 10 goals scored during this period. The league average for BTTS is 63%, meaning both teams’ recent 80% scoring rate is clearly above that level. The limited seasonal data available for the visitors remains a risk, but the current results—and the fact that both sides conceded 7 goals in five matches—more clearly support a scenario in which both teams find the net.

Kustošija’s last five matches produced an average of 3.0 goals, while Mladost Ždralovi’s games averaged as many as 3.4 goals. Both teams have been scoring regularly during this period: the hosts netted 8 goals and the visitors 10, while both conceded 7. An additional argument for at least two goals is the fact that both sides recorded both teams to score in 80% of their last five matches. Their combined recent xG stands at around 2.1, but the attacking efficiency of both teams and the league average of 2.75 goals point towards Over 1.5.

Mladost Ždralovi are showing significantly better current form: over their last five matches, they have averaged 2.0 goals and collected 2.2 points per game, compared with Kustošija’s 1.6 goals and 1.2 points. The visitors have avoided defeat in all five of those fixtures, winning 60% of them, whereas the hosts have won only once and drawn 60% of the time. Mladost’s advantage is particularly evident before half-time, as they led at the break in 67% of their recent matches and scored an average of 1.67 goals, compared with Kustošija’s 50% lead-at-the-break rate and 1.25 goals. After the interval, the hosts look more solid, averaging 0.75 goals and keeping a clean sheet in 75% of those halves, so a partial turnaround remains realistic. Nevertheless, Mladost concede only 0.67 goals per match after half-time, and their unbeaten run makes the most likely HT/FT scenario the visitors leading at the break and securing the win at full-time: 2/2.