Larissa vs PAOK II: match statistics

Larissa remain unbeaten this season, with 2 wins and 1 draw, having conceded just 1 goal, while PAOK II have recorded 1 win, 1 draw and 1 defeat. At home, the hosts average 1 goal scored and concede just 0.5 per match, keeping a clean sheet in 50% of such fixtures. PAOK II have lost every away game, failed to score in any of them and concede an average of 2 goals per match. Larissa’s advantage is also evident in the quality of chances created: their average home xG stands at 1.22, compared with PAOK II’s away xG of 0.80, while their xG against at home is higher at 1.38. The visitors are in decent overall form, winning 3 of their last 5 matches, but their extremely poor away numbers clearly point towards a Larissa victory.

The strongest signal is PAOK II’s performance away from home: the team has yet to score, averaging 0.0 goals per match, with 100% of games ending without scoring. The visitors also create very few chances, averaging 0.80 xG, 4.0 shots and just 1.0 shot on target per match, while Larissa limit opponents to only 0.92 xG. Larissa should have a clear attacking advantage, as they score 1.5 goals per home match while PAOK II concede 2.0, but a one-sided home win would still fulfill the BTTS No scenario. The visitors’ last five matches were more goal-heavy, averaging 1.6 goals scored and BTTS in 80% of games, but these figures conflict with their very poor away numbers. With the league-wide BTTS average at 46%, it is more likely that at least one team—above all PAOK II—will fail to find the net.

Larissa has a clearer attacking potential at home: they score an average of 1.5 goals, while PAOK II concede 2.0 goals per away match. At the same time, the visitors have yet to score in their away data, generating just 0.8 xG and averaging only 1 shot on target, which limits their projection to 0.95 goals. The chance-quality estimates also point to a moderate total, with Larissa’s xG at 1.27 and the average xG against PAOK II at 1.38. In their last five matches, both teams conceded an average of 1.2 goals, but games with at least 4 goals have not occurred in either Larissa’s or PAOK II’s season results. With 2.30 expected goals, the strongest selection is Under 3.5, as a four-or-more-goal scenario would require a clear deviation from both teams’ current profile.

Larissa averages 1.5 goals at home and has not lost a single match, while PAOK II have collected 0 points away from home, failed to score, and concede an average of 2.0 goals. The hosts create significantly more chances: their average xG stands at 1.27 compared with the opponents’ 0.80, while their number of shots on target is 4.5 against just 1.0 for PAOK II. In previous matches under these conditions, Larissa led at the break in 50% of games and conceded no goals before half-time, whereas PAOK II were behind at half-time in 100% of their away fixtures. The visitors’ last five matches look better in terms of results, but Larissa’s first-half advantage remains clear: they average 0.6 goals scored before the break and concede only 0.2. The most likely scenario is therefore that the hosts take the lead before half-time and maintain it until the final whistle, making the HT/FT 1/1 outcome the most probable.