Lazio vs Genoa: match statistics

Lazio come into the match in significantly better form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches and scored 9 goals during that run, while Genoa have managed just 2 victories over the same period. The hosts have conceded an average of 0.8 goals per game in their last five appearances, whereas Genoa have allowed as many as 14 goals, or 2.8 per match. This season, Lazio opened with a 1:0 victory, while Genoa lost their first game 0:2, further highlighting the difference in defensive organization. Lazio have recently averaged 1.8 goals per game, compared with just 1.4 for Genoa, whose protection of their own goal has been considerably weaker. The Romans’ advantage in form, attacking efficiency and defensive solidity points to a home win as the most likely outcome.

The BTTS - No pick is slightly stronger, as both teams scored in only 40% of the last five matches for each side, exactly matching the league average. Lazio conceded just 0.8 goals per game during this run, while its average xG against stood at 0.86, limiting Genoa’s attacking prospects. The visitors did average 1.4 goals and created 1.33 xG, but they also conceded as many as 14 goals in five matches, making a Lazio win to nil the more likely scenario. The hosts scored 9 times in their last five outings, while Genoa allowed opponents 2.8 goals per game. BTTS - No does not mean a goalless draw; rather, it means that at least one team will fail to score. Here, the most realistic outcome appears to be that at least one side—Genoa in particular—will not find the net.

Lazio have averaged 1.8 goals and created chances worth 1.41 xG across their last five matches, while Genoa have conceded as many as 2.8 goals per game. At the same time, Lazio’s defense has looked considerably more solid: during this period, they allowed just 0.8 goals and 0.86 xG per match, limiting the visitors’ projected goal output despite their average of 1.4 goals. Matches involving Lazio went Over 2.5 goals in 60% of their last five appearances, compared with 40% for Genoa, while the league-wide average is only 2.4 goals. The strongest signal is therefore Under 3.5 goals, as the expected total of 2.60 goals leaves a clear margin below four goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Lazio win at full-time, as the hosts were level at the break in 80% of their last five matches, while Genoa recorded the same outcome in 75%. Lazio averaged just 0.6 goals scored before half-time but conceded only 0.2, which supports a cautious opening without a clear advantage for either side. After the break, Lazio score an average of 1.2 goals per match and won the second half in 80% of their recent games, whereas Genoa lost the second half in 50% of cases. The hosts’ advantage is also evident in the broader form picture: Lazio won 4 of their last 5 matches and conceded 0.8 goals per game, while Genoa suffered 3 defeats and allowed opponents to score an average of 2.8 goals. Additionally, at least one goal was scored after half-time in 90% of league matches, so an evenly balanced start followed by a Lazio turnaround has the strongest foundations. HT/FT: X/2.