LDU Portoviejo vs 22 de Julio: match statistics

LDU Portoviejo are clearly more solid at home: they win 50% of such matches, concede just 0.4 goals per game, and keep a clean sheet in 60% of their appearances. 22 de Julio lose as many as 80% of their away matches, average just 0.4 goals scored, and fail to score in 70% of games. The hosts also create better-quality chances, recording an average xG of 1.41 compared with the visitors’ 0.81, while opponents allow their rivals an xG of 1.81. Portoviejo’s advantage is also evident in their control of the game, as they average 53% possession and 4 shots on target per match, compared with 40% and 2 shots on target for 22 de Julio. The hosts’ recent form has not been particularly strong, but the visitors’ run of four defeats in their last five matches, combined with their very poor away record, points towards a home win—likely in a low-scoring match.

The strongest signal points to BTTS - No, as both teams recorded BTTS in only 20% of their matches this season, compared with the league average of 36%. LDU Portoviejo score an average of 0.6 goals, while 22 de Julio manage just 0.4, with their scoring averages dropping to 0.2 and 0.4 respectively over their last five matches. The home side failed to score in 60% of matches, while the visitors did so in as many as 70%, clearly increasing the likelihood that at least one team will once again remain without a goal. Their attacking form is also poor: the average xG from their last five matches stands at 0.99 for LDU Portoviejo and 0.68 for 22 de Julio, while BTTS occurred in 0% and 20% of their matches respectively during this period. Although the visitors concede an average of 2.0 goals per match, the limited attacking potential of both sides supports a one-team-to-score scenario more strongly than an exchange of goals.

The profile of both teams clearly points to a low-scoring game: the hosts score an average of 0.6 goals, while the visitors manage just 0.4. In their last five matches, LDU Portoviejo scored only 1 goal, compared with 2 for 22 de Julio, with average xG figures of 0.99 and 0.68, respectively. The 3.5 line went under in 90% of the hosts’ matches and 80% of the visitors’ games, while none of the hosts’ last five matches produced Over 2.5 goals. Although the visitors concede 2.0 goals per game, raising the hosts’ forecast to 1.15, their attack lacks the potential to significantly increase the total match goal count. Therefore, Under 3.5 goals is by far the strongest data-backed selection.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and at full-time, as LDU Portoviejo were level at the break in 57% of their matches, with this figure rising to 80% across their last five games. Both teams have very limited attacking output: the hosts average 0.6 goals per match and the visitors 0.4, while LDU have scored just 0.2 goals per game in their last five outings. In the first halves, the hosts concede an average of only 0.14 goals and keep a clean sheet in 86% of cases, while their overall average for first-half goals is 0.57. The hosts’ advantage over weak visitors, who have lost 80% of their matches this season, increases the likelihood of the X/1 outcome, but LDU’s low scoring efficiency and the fact that they have failed to score in 60% of their matches primarily support the draw being maintained until full-time.