Le Havre vs Auxerre: match statistics

I back the home win ('1') because Le Havre holds a clear advantage in home metrics: on average 1.07 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per match with xG 1.37 versus xG against 1.29. Auxerre on the road scores only 0.69 goals per match, concedes 1.62, fails to score in 62% of away games and records just 8% clean sheets, which limits their realistic attacking threat. Although Le Havre have scored only 2 goals in the last 5 matches and have no wins (points per match 0.2), Auxerre have only 5 goals in their last 5 and points per match 1.0, so the visitors’ form advantage is marginal. Le Havre produce more shots at home (12.14 average shots and 4 on target) than Auxerre away (9.92 and 3.08), and the quality of chances is supported by a xG edge 1.37 to 1.11 for the hosts. Based on this I price the probabilities as: Le Havre 55%, draw 25%, Auxerre win 20%.

I project No BTTS — Le Havre has a seasonal BTTS rate of 29%, Auxerre 38%, both well below the league average of 48%, and in the last 5 matches both teams registered BTTS only 20% of the time. Scoring form indicates low productivity: Le Havre averaged 0.4 goals in the last 5 matches and 0.93 goals per home match seasonally, conceding 1.6 on average in the last 5; Auxerre has 1.0 goal in the last 5 and 0.69 goals away seasonally, conceding 1.2 in the last 5. Le Havre kept a clean sheet in 43% of home matches this season, while Auxerre kept a clean sheet away in only 8% of fixtures, suggesting it is more often the opponent who fails to score than both teams scoring. xG and shots metrics show moderate chance creation — xG Le Havre 1.28 vs Auxerre 1.11, 11.36 shots and 3.57 shots on target for Le Havre vs 9.92 and 3.08 for Auxerre, yet both teams have 22 goals this season, indicating low finishing efficiency. Given the low seasonal BTTS rates (29%/38%), only 20% in the last 5 matches, and recent form of 0.4 and 1.0 goals in the last 5, I assign a 70% probability to No BTTS and 30% to BTTS (BTTS - Yes).

Le Havre has an xG of 1.28 and averages 0.93 goals on 3.57 shots on target, while Auxerre has an xG of 1.11 and averages 0.69 goals on 3.08 shots; combined xG = 2.39, which suggests about 2.39 expected goals in the match. With mu = 2.39 the Poisson model gives probability of Over 1.5 goals ≈69% and Over 2.5 ≈43%, which aligns with seasonal over1.5 rates (Le Havre 43%, Auxerre 69%) and over2.5 (around 38–43%). Le Havre records clean sheets in 43% of matches, while Auxerre only 8%, which reduces the chance of a goalless result and supports at least two goals in the match; additionally Auxerre scored 5 goals in the last 5 matches versus Le Havre’s 2. BTTS occurs in only 29% (Le Havre) and 38% (Auxerre) of games, so Over 3.5 is a relatively weak signal (~22%), therefore the strongest pick is Over 1.5.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a Le Havre win at full-time (X/1) — I assign it a 34% probability, because both teams are frequently level at the break: Le Havre were level at half-time in 43% of matches, and Auxerre in 62%. Le Havre, however, have the edge in creating chances and ultimately finishing: the season average goals scored by the home side is 0.93 versus 0.69 for the visitors, and the home xG is 1.28 versus 1.11 for Auxerre. Additionally, the hosts perform better after the break — points gained after half-time 18 versus 8 for Auxerre, with average points after half-time 1.29 versus 0.62 — and they score most of their goals in minutes 46–75 (3 goals in 46–60 and 4 goals in 61–75), whereas Auxerre have 0 and 1 respectively. I do not rule out a draw after 90 minutes (X/X 20%) or Le Havre leading already at half-time (1/1 18%), since the hosts lead at the break in 21% of matches and the visitors win away only in 8% of cases.