Le Puy F.43 Auvergne vs Amiens SC: match statistics

Le Puy F.43 Auvergne sit 5th, while Amiens SC are only 15th, and the hosts have already won one of their two league matches. In their last five games, Le Puy have scored 7 goals—significantly more than Amiens’ tally of 2. Amiens have failed to win any of those five matches and have suffered 3 defeats. The visitors have particular problems with their away attacking efficiency: they have failed to score in 100% of such matches, averaging just 0.49 xG and 3 shots per game. Amiens can, however, limit opponents away from home, as shown by their average xG against of 0.81 and a perfect clean-sheet record, making a draw a realistic scenario. Le Puy’s advantage in current goal production and the visitors’ weak attack nevertheless point towards a narrow home win.

The strongest signal is Amiens’ very poor attacking output: in their last 5 matches, the team scored just 2 goals, averaging 0.4 per game, while their average xG is only 0.99. The visitors have failed to score in 100% of the available matches this season, while the hosts have kept a clean sheet in 100% of such appearances, although the season sample is clearly limited. Le Puy have conceded 1.8 goals per match over their last five fixtures, but only 40% of Amiens’ matches have seen both teams score, compared with 60% for the hosts. In addition, the league-wide BTTS rate is a low 33%, and both teams have recorded 0% of matches finishing over 2.5 goals in the available season data. The more likely scenario is therefore that at least one team—primarily Amiens—will fail to score. This supports the BTTS - No / No Goal outcome: it means that at least one team does not score, and does not automatically imply a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals, as both teams have exceeded the 2.5-goal line in only 40% of their last five matches. Amiens scored just 0.4 goals per game during this period, while its average xG stood at 0.99, limiting the visitors’ scoring outlook despite conceding 2.0 goals per match. Le Puy averaged 1.4 goals scored but created only 0.76 xG per game, so the recent high average of 3.2 total goals in its matches should not automatically imply an open game. The combined projected total of 2.05 goals indicates that a result with four or more goals is significantly less likely than a match finishing with no more than three goals.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Le Puy victory, as the hosts have averaged 1.0 goals after the break in their last five matches, compared with just 0.2 for Amiens. Le Puy won the second half in 60% of those games and conceded only 0.6 goals per match during that period, while Amiens lost the second half in 60% of cases and allowed opponents to score 1.2 goals. The first half should be more cautious: the hosts averaged 0.4 goals before the break and the visitors 0.2, while Amiens failed to score before half-time in 80% of their last five appearances. The scenario of the match gradually turning in the hosts’ favor is also supported by current form: Le Puy averaged 1.0 point per match over their last five league fixtures, compared with 0.4 points for Amiens. The main risk is that Le Puy were trailing at half-time in 80% of their recent matches, which is why the turnaround scenario also receives a significant rating.