Lecce vs Genoa: match statistics

Genoa appears a slight favorite due to superior offensive efficiency across the season – 41 goals scored vs 27 for Lecce and a higher conversion rate 10% vs 6%. Away, the visitors average 1.06 goals and 3.78 shots on target per match, while Lecce at home only registers 0.67 goals and 2.78 SOT, and failed to score in 56% of home games. On the other hand, Lecce shows better recent form over the last 5 matches (PPG 1.6, record 2-2-1) than Genoa (PPG 1.0, record 1-2-2), which raises the risk of a draw or upset. Defensively both teams concede on average 1.33 goals in these matchups, but Genoa allows higher xG against on the road (1.69 vs 1.33 for Lecce at home), which could give the hosts chances to score. Considering this and the visitors’ lower FTS rate (33% vs 56%), I forecast a Genoa win, though a draw remains probable.

The 'Both Teams To Score' scenario appears more likely: Genoa has a season BTTS of 61% versus Lecce 47%, while the league average is 45%. Both sides concede frequently — Lecce 1.37 goals per match, Genoa 1.33, and both teams have conceded 50 goals this season, increasing the likelihood of conceding. Additionally Genoa has a higher xG against (1.69 vs 1.19 for Lecce), and clean sheet percentages are only 21% for Lecce and 28% for Genoa (i.e. 79% and 72% of matches without a clean sheet respectively). In the last 5 matches Lecce scored 6 goals (1.2 per match), Genoa 3 goals (0.6 per match), while both concede on average 1.0 goal; both teams average 12.05 and 11.0 shots and 3.89 and 3.78 on target with a conversion rate of 10%, which suggests a sufficient number of chances. Considering this I assign a 64% probability to BTTS - Yes and 36% to No, recommendation: yes.

I assess this match in favor of Over 1.5 with an 88% probability — both teams have high season Over 1.5 rates: 79% (Lecce) and 78% (Genoa). Combined xG is around 2.70 (xG Lecce 1.33 vs xG Genoa 1.19), and Genoa concedes on average 1.69 xG to their goal, therefore I project 1.51 goals for Lecce and 1.19 for Genoa. Lecce averages 12.05 shots and 3.89 on target, Genoa 11.0 and 3.78 with a conversion of 10%, and both teams have BTTS rates of 47% and 61% respectively, which supports an expectation of at least 2 goals; in the last 5 matches Lecce scored 1.2 goals on average and Genoa 0.6. Seasonally Over 2.5 rates (58% Lecce, 50% Genoa) and xG ~2.7 give a moderately strong signal for Over 2.5 (~62%), while Over 3.5 is unlikely (seasonal 16–17%), so Under 3.5 has about an 83% chance.

As the most likely HT/FT scenario I indicate a draw at half-time and a home win (X/1) with a probability of 26%. A draw at the break is strongly justified: Lecce were level at half-time in 10 matches (53%) and Genoa in 9 matches (50%), with a low average of first-half goals of 0.42 for the home side and 0.44 for the visitors. Nevertheless I back a Lecce victory after the break, because their xG_for is 1.33 versus 1.19 for Genoa, while Genoa have a notably higher xG_against = 1.69, suggesting a weaker away defense. Additionally, Lecce win 32% of matches at home compared to Genoa’s 22% away win rate, and the hosts scored 3 goals in minutes 46–60, 4 in 61–75 and 7 in 76–90 (14 goals after the break in total), which supports a second-half turnaround. The probability distribution reflects the high share of HT draws (on average about 51%) and greater home chances in the second half, while retaining moderate probabilities for leading at the break (Lecce led at half-time 3 times = 16%, Genoa 5 times = 28%).