Lecco vs Vicenza: match statistics

Vicenza holds a clear statistical advantage: this season they have 25 wins versus Lecco’s 16 and have scored 60 goals compared to the hosts’ 41. Away, the visitors average 1.65 goals per game with shot conversion around 13% and only 6% of matches without a goal, while Lecco at home averages 1.12 goals, converts roughly 11% of shots and fails to score in 47% of matches. Vicenza creates more chances — 12.65 shots per game (3.88 on target) versus Lecco’s 10.94 (3.88 on target), and xG shows an advantage of 1.56 xG to 1.37 xG. Defensively the visitors are also better: they concede 0.65 goals per away match, while Lecco concede 0.82 at home, and the difference in goal difference away (+17) versus +5 for the hosts underlines Vicenza’s consistency. Considering form (Vicenza: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in the last 5, averaging 2.0 points per game vs Lecco: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, averaging 1.4 points) and a much lower percentage of matches without goals, I expect an away win.

Season stats show Lecco has BTTS in 47% of matches, Vicenza in 59%, and the league average is 50%, giving a moderate signal for BTTS. In the last 5 matches Vicenza recorded BTTS in 100% (5/5), scoring 11 goals (2.2 per match) and conceding 7 (1.4 per match), while Lecco had BTTS in 40% of their last 5, scoring 6 goals (1.2 per match) and conceding 6 (1.2 per match). Seasonal xG is 1.81 for Lecco versus 1.56 for Vicenza, and in the last 5 both teams’ xG is around 1.45 vs 1.67 with xG against about 1.29–1.30, indicating both sides create scoring opportunities. Lecco averages 15.47 shots and 5.29 on target per match versus Vicenza’s 12.65 and 3.88, but Lecco also has more clean sheets this season (47% vs 41%), which partially reduces BTTS probability. Overall, however, Vicenza’s strong and recent signal (100% BTTS in last 5) and the opponent’s higher seasonal BTTS suggest BTTS is more likely, so I assign 63% to BTTS - Yes and 37% to No Goal.

xG and statistical analysis indicate expected xG of 1.54 for Lecco and 1.25 for Vicenza, totaling 2.79 expected goals. Lecco produces season xG of 1.81 with 15.47 shots (5.29 on target), Vicenza has xG 1.56 with 12.65 shots (3.88 on target), so the home side has slightly higher chance creation potential. Both teams concede on average 0.65 goals per match and have 65% of matches over 1.5 goals this season, which naturally pushes the probability of Over 1.5 to around 77%. In the last 5 matches Vicenza scores on average 2.2 goals and has 80% of games over 2.5, while Lecco scores 1.2 goals and has 60% of such games, therefore Over 2.5 has a moderate probability (~53%), whereas Over 3.5 is less likely (~31%). Based on this, I recommend backing Over 1.5 (side: over, line: 1.5) as the strongest signal driven by xG, Lecco’s shot volume and Vicenza’s current form.

Lecco led at the break in 47% of their home matches, scoring an average of 0.65 goals in the first half while conceding only 0.29. Their average xG is 1.81 versus Vicenza’s 1.56, and Lecco allows opponents just 0.94 xG per game while Vicenza generates 1.27 xG against opponents, indicating Lecco’s creative and defensive edge. In the second half the hosts score an average of 1.24 goals compared to the visitors’ 1.00 and produce more shots (15.47 vs 12.65) and shots on target (5.29 vs 3.88), so Lecco has the ability to maintain or extend a lead. Therefore the most likely scenario is Lecco leading at half-time and winning after 90 minutes (1/1) — I assign this outcome a 41% probability, while draw or turnaround options are collectively less likely.