Lech Poznań II vs Lipno Stęszew: match statistics

Lech Poznań II have a clear edge in the quality of chances created at home: their average xG stands at 2.18, while Lipno Stęszew allow opponents 1.57 xG on the road. The hosts also average 9 shots on target from 14 attempts per match, whereas the visitors, despite taking 16 shots, hit the target only 5 times. Lech’s home defense looks more solid, conceding an average of 1.00 goal and generating just 0.57 xG against them, compared with Lipno’s 1.50 goals conceded away from home. Neither side has kept a clean sheet yet, and both have conceded 12 goals in their last five matches, so a both-teams-to-score scenario remains realistic. However, Lech are unbeaten at home, and their greater advantage in chance creation gives them a slightly higher probability of victory.

The strongest signal comes from the teams’ form over their last five matches: both Lech Poznań II and Lipno Stęszew recorded BTTS in 80% of their games. During this period, both teams averaged 1.8 goals scored per match, but also conceded as many as 2.4 goals per game, which significantly increases the chances of a goal from both sides. Lech averaged 1.97 xG, while Lipno posted 1.60 xG, meaning each team is generating chances equivalent to at least one goal. In addition, 100% of Lipno’s matches this season have featured goals from both teams, while the league-average BTTS rate stands at a high 67%. The hosts’ seasonal data is very limited, so greater weight should be given to their current run of form, which strongly points towards a BTTS - Yes scenario.

Both teams have averaged 1.8 goals scored over their last 5 matches, while each has conceded as many as 2.4 goals per game, pointing to a very open match profile. During this period, Lech Poznań II recorded an xG of 1.97, compared with 1.60 for Lipno Stęszew, while their xG conceded stood at 1.17 and 1.75, respectively. In four of each team’s last five matches, at least 3 goals were scored, and both teams found the net in 80% of those games. Further support comes from the league average of 3.52 goals per match, with 56% of fixtures producing at least three goals. The strongest signal, however, supports Over 1.5 goals, as the combination of high attacking output and weak defending from both sides significantly reduces the likelihood of a match finishing with no more than one goal.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Lipno Stęszew victory at the final whistle, as the visitors were level at the break in 60% of their last matches, compared with 50% for Lech II. Lipno did not lead at half-time in any of their last five games and scored just 0.4 goals per match before the break, which limits the likelihood of the visitors establishing an early lead. After the interval, however, the Stęszew side averages 1.4 goals, and at least two goals were scored in the second half of each of their last five matches. The visitors also have the stronger recent results record: they won 40% of their matches and averaged 1.4 points, compared with Lech II’s 20% win rate and 0.8 points. An additional argument is Lipno’s attacking potential, with an average xG of 1.86, alongside 16 shots and 5 shots on target per match.