Lechia Gdańsk vs Raków Częstochowa: match statistics

Lechia has the edge offensively at home — averaging 2.27 goals per match and only 7% of games without a goal, with average xG for 1.83 and xG against 1.43. Raków away scores on average 1.53 and concedes 1.53, with xG for 1.72 and xG against 1.39, which shows the visitors create chances (55% possession) but convert worse (conversion 11% vs Lechia’s 15%). Lechia also records more shots on target at home (6.13 vs 5.6) and has scored 56 goals across the season versus Raków’s 41, confirming the hosts’ offensive superiority. Forms are similar in points — both teams have 1.4 points per match in the last 5, but Lechia won 2 of those 5 matches while Raków has 1 win and 4 draws; additionally the hosts won 53% of home matches compared to Raków’s 40% of away wins. Therefore I favor Lechia and assess the chances as 55% for the home side, 25% for a draw and 20% for the visitors.

Statistics strongly favor BTTS: seasonal BTTS rates are 50% for Lechia and 67% for Raków, with a league average of 57%; in the last 5 matches Lechia had BTTS in 60% of games, while Raków in 100%. The share of matches without a scored goal is low – 21% for Lechia and 20% for Raków, which corresponds to 79% and 80% probability respectively that each team will score at least once. Chance-quality metrics support this: Lechia xG is 1.63 versus Raków average xG conceded of 1.39, and Raków xG is 1.72 versus Lechia average xG conceded of 1.47; additionally average shots 13.36 vs 14.33 and shots on target 4.14 vs 5.6 indicate chance creation by both sides. In the last 5 matches both teams conceded on average 1.4 (Lechia) and 1.6 (Raków) goals, and the league average goals per match is 2.73, which reduces the likelihood of a clean sheet. Considering Raków’s strong recent run (100% BTTS), low no-goal percentages and favorable xG, I tip BTTS = Yes with a probability of 75% versus 25% for No.

In the season Over 1.5 occurred in 64% of Lechia’s matches and 80% of Raków’s matches (average 72%), which alone indicates a high chance of at least two goals. Offensive metrics confirm this: xG is 1.63 for Lechia and 1.72 for Raków (3.35 xG combined), and in the last 5 matches both teams averaged 1.4 and 2.2 goals respectively (3.6 combined). Raków produces more shots on target (5.6 vs 4.14) and has a higher conversion rate (11% vs 10%), while BTTS occurs in 67% of their games (50% for Lechia), increasing the likelihood of goal exchange. Based on this I estimate expected goals of 1.42 for Lechia and 1.60 for Raków (3.02 combined), which gives a strong signal for Over 1.5 and a moderately strong signal for Over 2.5. The best available wager is Over 1.5 (recommendation: back Over at the 1.5 line).

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time with the home side winning after the match (X/1). Both teams draw at the break in approximately 50–53% of their matches (50% Lechia, 53% Raków), and first-half goals average only 0.57 for Lechia and 0.67 for Raków, favoring a tied score at half-time. In second halves Lechia scores an average of 0.71 goals after the break, has a positive second-half goal difference of +4 and wins 43% of second halves, whereas Raków concedes an average of 1.0 goals after the break, has a negative second-half goal difference of -2 and only 27% second-half wins. Lechia also keeps a clean sheet in 64% of second halves and concedes just 0.43 goals on average after the break, and the teams’ xG figures are similar (1.63 versus 1.72), indicating a low-scoring half-time and a realistic chance for the home side to effect a turnaround in the second half. Raków’s last 5 matches include 4 draws and 1 win, which confirms the tendency for draws at the break and strengthens the X/1 signal as the strongest.