Leevon / PPK vs Rīgas FS II: match statistics

Leevon / PPK are 4th in the standings and have won 13 of their 20 matches, while Rīgas FS II sit 10th, with 12 defeats over the same period. The hosts are in excellent form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 11 goals and conceding just 4, whereas the visitors have lost 4 of their last 5 games, conceding as many as 23 goals. At home, Leevon / PPK win 80% of their matches, average 2.20 goals and create chances worth 1.79 xG, while Rīgas FS II lose 67% of their away fixtures and concede an average of 3.22 goals. The hosts also hold the edge in attacking quality: they average 5.7 shots on target per match compared with their opponents’ 3.67, with a conversion rate of 17% versus 13%. The visitors fail to score in 44% of their away matches, making Leevon / PPK clear favorites.

Leevon / PPK have recorded BTTS in 82% of their matches this season, well above the league average of 65%, while Rīgas FS II have registered this outcome in 56% of games. The hosts score an average of 1.82 goals but concede 2.36, whereas the visitors score 1.33 goals and concede exceptionally many—3.22 per match. In each of Rīgas FS II’s last five appearances, both teams scored, with a record of 10 goals scored and 23 conceded. Leevon / PPK have been more solid defensively of late, conceding just 0.8 goals per match; however, the visitors’ attacking potential is supported by an xG of 1.52 across their last five matches. The strongest scenario remains BTTS - Yes: the hosts should exploit their opponents’ very weak defense, while the visitors possess sufficient attacking numbers to respond with at least one goal.

Leevon / PPK average 1.82 goals per game this season, raising that figure to 2.20 across their last five matches, with 11 goals scored in total. Rīgas FS II have a very weak defensive record at present: they have conceded 23 goals in their last five games, or as many as 4.60 per match, compared with a season average of 3.22. The 1.5 line has been exceeded in 100% of the home team’s matches and in 89% of the away team’s games, while the league-wide average stands at a high 3.73 goals. The hosts are further supported by 1.77 xG from their last five matches, while the visitors’ defense allowed an average of 2.14 xG during that period. The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as even with Leevon / PPK showing a more solid defense recently, the scale of Rīgas FS II’s defensive problems clearly favors at least two goals.

Leevon / PPK are in excellent form: they have won four and drawn one of their last five matches, while Rīgas FS II have suffered four defeats over the same period. The hosts were leading at the break in four of their last five games, scoring an average of 1.6 goals before half-time and conceding just 0.6, whereas the visitors failed to lead in any of those matches and conceded as many as 2.8 goals in the first halves. The hosts’ superiority is also evident across the season: they create chances worth an average of 1.59 xG compared with their opponents’ 1.35, while Rīgas FS II concede an average of 3.22 goals per match. The visitors remain vulnerable after the break, conceding an average of 1.8 goals in their last five matches, so the most likely scenario is Leevon / PPK leading at half-time and maintaining their winning advantage until full-time.