Legia Warszawa vs Zagłębie Lubin: match statistics

The favorite appears to be Legia Warszawa: in the last 5 matches they have a record of 4 wins and 1 draw (wwwdw), scored 10 goals and conceded 3, while Zagłębie Lubin in their last 5 have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses (dwllw) with 4 goals scored and 2 conceded. Legia averages 2.6 points per game over their last five outings versus 1.4 for the visitors, indicating a clear advantage in point accumulation. Zagłębie are currently top of the table (position 1) and have 2 goals this season versus Legia’s 1 in the season summary, however the seasonal data is fragmentary. Defensively the visitors have conceded 2 goals in the last 5 matches compared to 3 for Legia (0.4 vs 0.6 goals conceded per game), but Legia’s superiority in attack (2.0 vs 0.8 goals per game) is decisive. Considering form and Legia’s higher points average (2.6 vs 1.4), I tip the home side to win.

Legia has 100% clean sheets this season and a seasonal average of goals conceded equal to 0.0 with seasonBTTSPercentage_home = 0.0, which strongly argues against BTTS. In the last 5 matches Legia averaged 2.0 goals scored (10 goals) and conceded 0.6 goals, while Zagłębie in their last 5 averaged 0.8 goals (4 goals) and conceded 0.4 goals (2 conceded). xG values over the last 5 matches are 1.68 for Legia versus 1.51 for Zagłębie, while xG against are 1.47 (Legia) and 1.96 (Zagłębie), suggesting Zagłębie allows more high-quality chances but this does not translate into a high number of goals scored. Both teams have seasonal seasonBTTSPercentage equal to 0.0%, and the league average BTTS is 56.0%, so the strongest signal from the data is a clean sheet expected (no both teams to score); therefore I tip "No" (No Goal).

I base the expected goals estimate on the last 5 matches: Legia has an average xG_for of 1.68, and Zagłębie has xG_against of 1.96, so Legia’s expected goals ≈ (1.68+1.96)/2 = 1.82. For Zagłębie, analogously xG_for 1.51 and Legia xG_against 1.47 give ≈ (1.51+1.47)/2 = 1.49, totaling ≈ 3.31 goals. Additionally, Legia scored 10 goals in the last 5 matches (2.0 avg), while Zagłębie scored 4 goals (0.8 avg) and conceded 2.0 per match, which supports a higher-scoring game scenario. Because the projected total of 3.31 is clearly above the 2.5 line and Legia had Over 2.5 in 60% of their last 5 matches, I prefer the Over 2.5 play with an estimated probability of 75% (Under 25%). Over 1.5 I rate as virtually certain (92%), whereas Over 3.5 is less certain (42%) because 3.31 expected goals is slightly below that threshold.

Legia holds a clear statistical advantage: on average 2.0 goals scored per season with 0.0 conceded and 100% wins, whereas Zagłębie has a seasonal tally of 0.0 goals scored. In the last five matches Legia led at the break in 75% of games and averaged 1.0 goals by half-time, while Zagłębie did not lead at the break in any of those five matches. The hosts average 13.0 shots per match and 2.0 on target with an attacking xG of 1.34 versus the visitors' 0.0 xG, underscoring the advantage in chance creation. Legia won 80% of their last five fixtures compared to 40% for the visitors and have kept 100% clean sheets this season, which increases the likelihood of maintaining a lead. Therefore the model assigns the highest probability to the 1/1 Half-Time/Full-Time scenario (51%); as alternatives I consider x/1 (21%) and x/x (8%), while a turnaround in favor of the visitors is unlikely (2/2 2%).