Leicester City vs Hull City: match statistics

I back an away win (Hull). The visitors sit 6th in the table versus 22nd Leicester and have 20 wins this season compared to the hosts' 11; away they win 48% of matches versus Leicester’s 33% home win rate. Offensive metrics are mixed: Leicester at home averages 13.67 shots and has xG 1.50, but their last 5 matches produced only 3 goals and 0.6 points per game, while Hull average 1.52 goals on the road and have scored 6 goals with 1.2 points per game in their last 5. Hull also display higher shot conversion (14% vs 10%) and a lower share of matches without scoring (14% vs 24%), despite a higher average away xG against of 1.90 indicating susceptibility to clear chances; Leicester concede 1.48 goals at home with xG against 1.26. Considering superior conversion, the larger number of wins this season (20 vs 11) and markedly better recent form (1.2 pts vs 0.6 pts over the last 5), I assign greater probability to the visitors: 55% for their win, 25% for a draw and 20% for a Leicester win.

Both teams have a high BTTS rate this season: Leicester at home 64% and Hull away 62% versus league average 56%, which favors a Goal/Goal scenario. In the short-term trends signals are mixed — Leicester’s last 5 matches show BTTS only 40% and they score on average 0.6 goals per game, while Hull have 80% BTTS and score 1.2, so the visitors more consistently confirm BTTS. Goal and xG data indicate chances will be created: seasonally Leicester score 1.5 and concede 1.5 (xG for 1.32, xG against 1.41), and Hull score 1.52 and concede 1.33 with away xG against 1.9. Additionally, average shots on target 3.91 (Leicester) and 4.24 (Hull) and conversion rates 13% vs 14% increase the likelihood of goals on both ends, therefore I assess BTTS - Yes at 70% vs 30% and recommend the Yes selection.

Calculated expected goals are 1.61 for Leicester and 1.33 for Hull, totaling 2.94; values were derived as the average of the team’s attacking xG and the opponent’s defensive xG: (1.32+1.90)/2 and (1.24+1.41)/2. Seasonal shares of matches over 1.5 goals are 77% for Leicester and 76% for Hull (average 76.5%), and the combined xG of 2.94 raises the estimated probability of Over 1.5 to ~78%, therefore I recommend that side. For the 2.5 line, seasonal rates are 59% (Leicester) and 67% (Hull), average 63%, which with nearly 3 expected goals gives a moderately high probability of Over 2.5 (~63%). The 3.5 line has seasonal rates of 45%/29% (average 37%), so with 2.94 goals Over 3.5 is less certain (~37%), and Under 3.5 holds the edge. Additionally both teams have a high BTTS percentage: Leicester 64% and Hull 62%, and the combination Over 2.5 with BTTS occurs in their matches at around 55–56%, which further supports the case for Over 1.5/2.5.

Halftime draws are common: hosts were level at the break in 41% of matches, visitors in 43%, translating to roughly a 42% chance of an HT draw. Seasonally Leicester has a slightly higher average goals at halftime (0.91 vs 0.81 for Hull) and 39 HT goals vs Hull’s 28, but in the last 5 matches the visitors have clearly been better — they led at the break in 3 of 5 (60%) and scored 7 HT goals in those games, while the hosts had 0 leads and 4 HT goals. Overall form and stats also slightly favor the visitors: win percentage 48% vs 45% for the hosts and seasonal PPG 1.62 vs 1.59, and the visitors average more shots on target (4.24 vs 3.91), which increases their chances of second-half goals. Additionally, in the second half the visitors average 0.71 goals vs 0.59 for the hosts, so the strongest signal is a visitors’ lead at the break and full-time victory (2/2), which I assign a 28% probability to, while the scenario of an HT draw and a visitors’ win (X/2) receives 22% as the second-strongest signal.