Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara vs Morelia: match statistics
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara vs Morelia: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara play Morelia in Ascenso MX (Mexico). The match date is 5 April 2026 at 03:00. Final score: 2:0.
Current form
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Morelia: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara scores 1.20 and concedes 1.53 goals per match. Morelia scores 1.29 and concedes 1.15. League average: 2.85 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara 57%, Morelia 41%. Over 2.5: Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara 43%, Morelia 50%. League level: BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 53%.
xG, shots and style
xG is very similar for both teams. Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara: 12.5 shots per match, Morelia: 13.0.
Match halves
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara: half-time lead 30%, second-half goals 0.67. Morelia: half-time lead 32%, second-half goals 0.65.
Goals by minute
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara: 46-60 (9 goals). Morelia: 76-90+ (13 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ascenso MX: 2.85 goals per match, BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 53%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 1-0-0. Average goals 5.00, BTTS 100%.
Match description
I project a Morelia win (2). Morelia has the superior season record: 13 wins and 42 goals versus Leones’ 8 wins and 32 goals, and in the last 5 matches they scored 8 goals with an average of 1.8 points per game, while Leones scored only 4 goals and average 0.6 points per game. Hosts, however, create more chances at home — average xG 1.78 and 14.69 shots per game (5 on target) versus xG 1.30 and 10.29 shots for Morelia away — but Leones convert those chances less efficiently (conversion rate 10% vs 13% for Morelia) and more often fail to score (share of matches without a goal 23% vs 14% for Morelia). The home defence looks better over the season at the stadium (1.08 goals conceded per game and 38% clean sheets), but in the last 5 fixtures Leones have conceded 9 goals versus 6 conceded by Morelia, which gives the visitors an edge in form and stability. Given Morelia’s higher scoring efficiency and better recent form, I give them the greater chances, although a draw remains realistic due to the hosts’ decent home metrics.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara | Morelia | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Morelia is 8% better for: goals scored per match.
1.2 goals / match - Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara · 1.29 goals / match - Morelia
Morelia is 33% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.53 goals / match - Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara · 1.15 goals / match - Morelia
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara scores in 73% of matches (22 of 30 matches), while Morelia keeps a clean sheet in 38% (13 of 34 matches).
Morelia scores in 68% of matches (23 of 34 matches), while Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara keeps a clean sheet in 23% (7 of 30 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara
Over / Under — Morelia
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Morelia is 20% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.2 pts / match - Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara · 1.44 pts / match - Morelia
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 30% of matches and wins 30%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Morelia - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 32% of matches and wins 41%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (9 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (15). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goli). Concedes most in 0-15 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara
Morelia
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ascenso MX).
Teams vs league
| Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara | Liga | Morelia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.73 | 2.85 | ▼ 2.44 |
| Both teams scored | • 57% | 57% | ▼ 41% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 43% | 53% | ▼ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 23% | 25% | ▲ 38% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 77% | 74% | ▼ 65% |
| Goal after half-time | • 80% | 80% | • 79% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara 1 - 0 - 0 Morelia. Average goals 5.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara vs Morelia?
The Ascenso MX match finished Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara 2:0 Morelia. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara vs Morelia?
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara score 1.20 goals per game on average and Morelia 1.29. The Ascenso MX average is 2.85 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 53% of games. Both teams score in 57% of Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara's matches and 41% of Morelia's.
What form are Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara and Morelia in?
Over the last 5 games Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Morelia 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara vs Morelia?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.