Levski Sofia vs Dunav 2010: match statistics

Levski Sofia have scored 8 goals in their last 5 matches and conceded only 2, while Dunav 2010 also scored 8 but conceded 7, which gives the hosts a clear defensive advantage. The hosts are unbeaten in their last five matches (2-3-0) and average 1.8 points per game, whereas Dunav have a 2-1-2 record and average 1.4 points per game. Per-match metrics show Levski average 1.6 goals scored and 0.4 conceded per game over the last 5, while Dunav average 1.6 scored and 1.4 conceded, clearly indicating superior defensive organization from the hosts. Given the lower number of goals conceded (2 vs 7) and the hosts’ unbeaten run over the last 5 matches, I rate a home win as the most likely outcome.

Levski Sofia in the last 5 matches scored 8 goals and conceded only 2, i.e. an average of 1.6 goals per match and 0.4 conceded, which translates to at least 3 clean sheets. Dunav 2010 also averages 1.6 goals per match (8 in the last 5), but concedes 7 goals, i.e. 1.4 per match, indicating a significantly weaker defense. BTTS occurred in 40% of Levski’s matches and 60% of Dunav’s matches over the last 5 rounds, however the defensive asymmetry (0.4 vs 1.4 average conceded) favors a scenario where the home side keeps a clean sheet. xG confirms Levski’s advantage in chance creation (xG_for 1.42 vs 1.16), and although the hosts’ xG_against is 1.08, in practice they concede only 0.4 goals, which reduces the real probability of BTTS; therefore I tip No BTTS as more likely.

In the last 5 matches Levski scores an average of 1.6 goals and concedes 0.4 (8 scored, 2 conceded), while Dunav scores an average of 1.6 and concedes 1.4 (8 scored, 7 conceded). xG in those games is 1.42 for Levski and 1.16 for Dunav, with xG against at 1.08 (Levski) and 1.00 (Dunav), indicating higher quality chances for the home side. Averaging the teams' offensive xG and the opponent's defensive xG I estimate 1.21 expected goals for Levski and 1.12 for Dunav, totaling 2.33 goals. A Poisson model with λ=2.33 yields probabilities of approximately: Over 1.5 ≈ 68%, Over 2.5 ≈ 41% and Over 3.5 ≈ 21% (Under respectively 32%, 59%, 79%). The strongest and most reliable signal is Over 1.5 (68%), therefore I recommend backing Over 1.5, since even conservative xG estimates and the teams' scoring averages (1.6+1.6 in the last 5) suggest at least 2 goals.

I assess a Half-Time/Full-Time draw/draw (X/X) as the most likely scenario. Levski have averaged 1.6 goals scored and 0.4 conceded per home match in their last five games, with 60% of those matches finishing level (3 of 5); they were level at the break in 60% (3 of 5) and kept a first-half clean sheet in 80% (4 of 5). Dunav average 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match, led at half-time in 40% (2 of 5) and scored an average of 0.6 goals before the break, indicating the visitors are active in the first 45 minutes but without a clear advantage. Given Levski’s low goals-against average (0.4) and the high share of draws for the home side (60% full-time, 60% HT), I assign the highest probability to X/X (34%), with X/1 (Half-Time draw / Full-Time home win) a strong alternative at 22%.