Levski Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia: match statistics

Levski Sofia holds a clear offensive advantage: at home they average 26 shots per match, 12 on target, and generate xG 3.36, while Septemvri away averages 12 shots, 5 on target and xG 1.74. Practically, Levski have scored 10 goals and won 4 of their last 5 matches (1 draw), averaging 2.6 points per match in that period, whereas Septemvri have 6 goals, 2 wins and 1.6 points per match. Defensively the hosts concede on average 1 goal per home match, while the visitors concede 2 on the road; additionally Levski have 100% home wins in the seasonal sample, and Septemvri 0% wins away. Both teams have similar shot conversion (8%), so Levski’s edge stems primarily from a greater number and quality of chances and higher possession (71% vs 61%). Considering these figures and trends, I estimate the hosts’ probability at 72%, draw 16% and the visitors 12%.

The strongest signal for BTTS - Yes is that both teams have a seasonal BTTS rate of 100% (Levski 100%, Septemvri 100%), meaning in every match this season both sides have scored. In the last 5 matches Levski recorded BTTS in 60% of games and Septemvri in 80% (average 70%), versus the league BTTS level of 64%, which reinforces this scenario. xG stats show both teams generate around 1.7 xG (Levski 1.71, Septemvri 1.74) with xG against of 0.75 and 1.27 respectively, and shots on target at 5 per match each, indicating a realistic chance production. Neither side has a clean sheet this season (0% for both), and in the last 5 matches Levski scored 10 and conceded 3 (2.0 and 0.6 per game), while Septemvri scored 6 and conceded 5 (1.2 and 1.0), so the balance favors goal exchange. Based on this I favor the 'Yes' variant at 82% vs 18% for 'No', as key indicators (100% seasonal BTTS, 0% clean sheets and approximately 1.7 xG per team) clearly favor goals from both sides.

The model gives 1.49 xG for Levski Sofia (attack average 1.71 and opponent defense 1.27 → (1.71+1.27)/2=1.49) and 1.25 xG for Septemvri Sofia ((1.74+0.75)/2=1.25), totaling 2.74 expected goals. In the last 5 matches Levski scored 10 goals (2.0 per match) with last5 xG 1.91, while Septemvri scored 6 goals (1.2 per match) with last5 xG 1.58, indicating a home offensive advantage. Seasonally both teams have had 100% of matches with both teams scoring and 100% of matches over 1.5 goals, and the league averages 2.43 goals per match — this further supports the over 1.5 signal. Considering the combined xG of 2.74, Levski’s form (last 5: 4 wins and 1 draw) and the fact that Septemvri concedes on average 2.0 goals per match this season, I estimate the probabilities as: over 1.5 — 97%, over 2.5 — 63%, over 3.5 — 22%. The strongest and most predictable bet is over 1.5 (side: over), because the seasonal 100% over 1.5 rate, higher home xG and the visitors’ weaker defense give a clear edge to that line.

Both teams create similar chances — attacking xG is 1.71 for Levski and 1.74 for Septemvri — but Levski’s defense is substantially better (xG against 0.75 versus 1.27 for the visitors), which gives them an advantage after the break. The home side’s form over the last five matches is strong: 2.6 points per game and an 80% win rate, while Septemvri have 1.6 points and a 40% win rate. In second halves Levski average 1.6 goals in their last five matches compared to 0.8 for the visitors, and the hosts register 2.2 points in second halves in this sample, suggesting a post-break improvement. Half-time draws occur in 40% of the last five matches for both sides, so a draw at the break followed by a home win at full-time is the scenario most consistent with the data; therefore I select X/1 (35%) as the strongest signal.