Liefering vs Austria Wien II: match statistics

Liefering has a slight edge in chance creation: at home they record 58% possession, on average 14.54 shots and 5.23 on target per game, translating to 2.00 goals per game and average xG 1.72. Austria Wien II, however, is in better form — over the last 5 matches they scored 7 and conceded 4, averaging 1.6 points per game in that period; away they concede 1.33 goals on average with xG against 1.32. Liefering’s problem is poor recent form and reduced defensive solidity: in the last 5 matches they averaged only 0.8 points per game and conceded 9 goals, which undermines their home advantage. Shot conversion is similar (around 14% versus 15% for Austria), and the average goals in home matches 3.77 versus 2.75 in away matches suggests an open game, therefore I tip a home win with probabilities: 45% home success, 30% draw and 25% away win.

Both teams have season BTTS rates of 62% (Liefering) and 58% (Austria Wien II), above the league average of 52%, indicating a propensity for Goal/Goal matches. In the last 5 fixtures however Liefering’s BTTS is only 40% and they conceded 9 goals (1.8 per game), while Austria Wien II’s BTTS is 60% and they conceded 4 goals in the last 5 (0.8 per game), giving mixed signals on the hosts’ ability to score. Season goal averages are 1.08 scored and 1.08 conceded for Liefering and 1.42 scored and 1.33 conceded for Austria Wien II; attacking xG is 1.12 vs 1.25 and xG against 1.46 vs 1.32, suggesting a slight advantage for the visitors in creating quality chances. Additionally Austria register more shots (9.5 vs 7.85) and more shots on target (3.92 vs 3.77) with a higher conversion 15% vs 14%, while the likelihood of a clean sheet for either side is low (23% and 25%), which increases the probability that both sides will score. Considering season BTTS 62%/58%, last 5 matches 40%/60% and the visitors’ shooting and xG advantage, I pick BTTS - Yes with an estimated probability of 62% vs 38% for No.

The xG-based model estimates 1.22 expected goals for Liefering (attack xG 1.12 and opponent-adjusted xG conceded 1.32; (1.12+1.32)/2) and 1.36 for Austria Wien II (1.25 and 1.46; (1.25+1.46)/2), totaling 2.58 expected goals. Seasonally 69% of Liefering’s matches and 92% of Austria Wien II’s matches finished over 1.5 goals, while over 2.5 occurred in 31% and 50% of their matches respectively; both teams also show high BTTS rates of 62% and 58%. In the last 5 fixtures Liefering scored 5 and conceded 9 (1.0 scored / 1.8 conceded on average), whereas Austria Wien II scored 7 and conceded 4 (1.4 / 0.8), indicating a weaker defense for the home side. Additionally Liefering averages 7.85 shots with 3.77 on target and a 14% conversion rate, while Austria Wien II averages 9.50 shots with 3.92 on target and a 15% conversion rate, confirming both teams’ ability to create chances. Based on the above the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (I estimate 86% probability), the 2.5 line offers only a marginal edge for Over (53% vs 47%), and 3.5 remains unlikely (around 18% Over).

Austria Wien II led at the break in 6 of their seasonal matches (50%) versus just 3 (23%) for the hosts, and in the last five fixtures the visitors led at the break in 60% (3 of 5), indicating a stronger start from the away side. The visitors average 0.92 goals by half-time, the hosts only 0.46; across the season Austria Wien II score 1.42 goals per match versus Liefering’s 1.08 and have a higher xG (1.25 vs 1.12), suggesting superior chance creation. The hosts record a higher second-half goals average (1.15 vs 0.83) and in their last five matches the hosts’ second halves produced on average 2.2 goals, yet the season-long win percentage favors the visitors (50% vs 38%), so the visitors’ lead is often sufficient to hold on. Additionally, both teams have a high season rate of matches with both teams scoring (62% hosts, 58% visitors), but that scenario in the first half is rare (15% and 17%), which amplifies the importance of Austria Wien II taking an early lead. On this basis the most likely HT/FT scenario is the visitors leading at half-time and winning the match (2/2) at 44% probability; alternatively a half-time draw and visitor win (X/2) is assessed at 14%, while a host comeback after the break is unlikely (2/1 — 4%, 1/2 — 2%).