Lierse Kempenzonen vs Francs Borains: match statistics

Francs Borains are 4th and have won 4 of their 5 matches this season, while Lierse Kempenzonen sit 12th with just 1 win from 5 games. The visitors have won both of their away matches so far, scoring an average of 1.5 goals, while the hosts average 1 goal at home and have failed to score in half of their matches. Francs Borains have a clear edge in chance creation: their away xG stands at 2.16 compared with the hosts’ 1.52 at home, while shots on target average 6.5 and 4.5 per match, respectively. Lierse have kept a clean sheet in half of their home matches and concede an average of just 0.5 goals in them, so a draw remains a realistic possibility; however, the 8 goals they have conceded in their last 5 matches point to a weaker defensive trend. The last 5 matches also favor the visitors: 3 wins and 3 goals conceded, compared with the hosts’ 1 win and 8 goals conceded.

The strongest argument against BTTS - Yes is Francs Borains’ defense: in their last 5 matches, the visitors conceded an average of 0.6 goals, and both teams scored in just 20% of those games. Lierse averaged 1.2 goals over this period, but failed to score in 33% of their home matches, increasing the risk that they will be kept off the scoresheet this time. On the other hand, the hosts recorded BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, while the visitors average 2.16 xG away from home, so a Goal/Goal outcome remains a realistic possibility. However, with Francs Borains keeping a clean sheet in 50% of their away matches and BTTS landing in only 20% of their last 5 games, it is slightly more likely that at least one team will fail to score.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: the projected total of 2.75 goals gives this line a greater edge than the more demanding Over 2.5 goals line. The hosts average 1.50 xG, while the visitors average 2.16 xG, pointing to the potential for both sides to create chances. At the same time, Lierse have conceded an average of 1.6 goals across their last five matches, while Francs Borains have scored 1.4 goals per game. The visitors’ defensive record warrants caution with higher lines: they have conceded an average of just 0.6 goals in their last five outings, and none of their matches to date has gone over 3.5 goals.

A draw at half-time followed by a Francs Borains win is the most likely outcome, although the away data covers only two matches. The visitors were level at the break in both, and have gone into half-time level three times in their last five matches overall. After the break in those two away matches, they scored an average of 1.5 goals and won both second halves. Their form also points to an away win: they have won three of their last five matches, compared with Lierse's one, while the hosts conceded an average of 1.6 goals over that period, against 0.6 for the visitors. A half-time draw remains more convincing than an early away lead, as the visitors failed to score before the break in either of their two away matches so far.