Lille vs Troyes: match statistics

Lille sit 4th, while Troyes are 9th, and the hosts have collected 7 points from three matches this season, with a 5:2 goal difference. Lille also have a slightly better run of form over their last five matches: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, compared with Troyes’ 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats. At home, the hosts score an average of 2 goals and register 4 shots on target, while the visitors also average 2 goals away from home but manage only 2 shots on target per match. Troyes have conceded 7 goals across their three league fixtures and as many as 9 in their last five matches, indicating greater defensive vulnerability despite a respectable start away from home. Both teams have low average xG figures—1.03 for Lille and 0.94 for Troyes—so the hosts’ advantage is not decisive; however, their greater efficiency and more consistent form support a Lille win.

The signal for both sides to score is clear: Lille’s seasonal BTTS rate stands at 50%, while Troyes’ is as high as 100%, compared with a league average of 63%. In their last five matches, both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of games, scoring an average of 1.6 and 1.4 goals respectively. Lille generates a high 1.90 xG at home and averages 18 shots per match, while Troyes have failed to keep a single clean sheet this season and have conceded 7 goals. The visitors have a lower season-long xG of 0.94, but this has risen to 1.50 recently, while Lille have allowed opponents 2.00 xG during this run. The most likely scenario is therefore one in which Lille capitalise on Troyes’ defensive weaknesses, with the visitors responding with at least one goal. This supports the BTTS - Yes / Goal-Goal selection rather than BTTS - No, which means that at least one team fails to score—not necessarily a 0:0 draw or a match in which neither side scores.

The 2.90-goal projection is based on both teams’ attacking profiles over their last five matches: Lille averaged 1.6 goals scored, while Troyes averaged 1.4. During this period, Troyes conceded 1.8 goals per match, whereas Lille allowed opponents a high average xG of 2.00. The visitors have recently created chances worth an average of 1.50 xG, while at home the hosts record as many as 18 shots per match with 1.90 xG. At least 3 goals were scored in 40% of Lille’s last five matches and 60% of Troyes’ games, making the Over 2.5 line only moderately goal-friendly. The strongest signal is for Over 1.5, as Troyes recorded more than 1.5 total goals in 100% of their away matches so far, while the projected combined tally clearly exceeds two goals.

Lille are showing clearly better current form: over their last five matches, they have averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, while Troyes have conceded 1.8 goals per game. The hosts were leading at the break in three of their last five appearances, scoring an average of 1.0 goal before half-time and conceding just 0.4; during the same period, Troyes averaged 0.8 goals scored and 0.4 conceded before the break. Lille are also creating more chances, averaging 18 shots and 4 on target compared with Troyes’ 11 and 2, while their xG stands at 1.90 versus the visitors’ 0.94. Although Troyes won their only away match so far and were leading at half-time, this is a very small sample. Recent form and Lille’s creative superiority therefore support the hosts taking the lead and holding on for the win. The 1/1 scenario is consequently the strongest, although second-half statistics indicate a risk of the lead being reduced, as Lille conceded an average of 0.8 goals in the second half across their last five matches.