Lipno Stęszew vs Chemik Bydgoszcz: match statistics

A draw is the most likely outcome, as Chemik Bydgoszcz have drawn 7 of their 10 league matches, including 4 of their last 5, despite still being without a win. Lipno Stęszew have won just 1 of their last 5 games and have lost 75% of their home matches, making them difficult to consider clear favorites. The hosts average 1.5 goals scored at home but concede as many as 2.75; away from home, the visitors score 1.25 and concede 2.5 goals per game. Both defenses give their opponents chances, although Lipno’s opponents average 2.42 xG at home, compared with 1.84 in Chemik’s away matches. The visitors’ edge in draws therefore offsets the hosts’ poor results, while Chemik’s lack of away wins argues against backing an away victory.

Both teams have scored and conceded in all of their matches so far, and this scenario occurred in 100% of Lipno’s and 80% of Chemik’s last five games. Lipno average 1.83 goals scored per match, while Chemik average 1.25; they concede 2.33 and 2.50 goals respectively, giving both sides opportunities to score. Over their last five matches, each team conceded an average of 2.2 goals, further weakening the case for either side to keep a clean sheet. Their attacking potential is also reflected in average xG figures of 1.70 for Lipno and 1.44 for Chemik, making BTTS - Yes the more likely outcome.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals: every match played so far by either team has gone over this line, and neither side has kept a clean sheet in any of them. Lipno average 1.83 goals scored and 2.33 conceded, while Chemik score 1.25 and concede 2.50, pointing to scoring chances at both ends. In their last five matches, both teams conceded 2.2 goals per game, and Over 2.5 goals landed in 80% of each team’s matches. An estimated 3.60 total goals supports the case for goals, but the 1.5 line offers a clearer edge than higher thresholds, where a single less productive performance could determine the outcome of the bet.

A draw at half-time is a realistic scenario: Lipno were level at the break in 3 of their last five matches, while Chemik did so twice; neither team had taken the lead at that point. The home side average 0.83 goals before the break, compared with 0.50 for the visitors, so Lipno do not hold a clear advantage at this stage. A draw after 90 minutes is supported by Lipno’s 83% draw rate and Chemik’s 50% draw rate in the season data, although both teams concede more than two goals per match. Lipno have a case for turning the result in their favor after the break, averaging 1.00 goals in the second half to Chemik’s 0.75. This makes X/1 a close alternative, but given the high proportion of draws, X/X is the most cautious pick.