Lipno Stęszew vs Flota Świnoujście: match statistics

Flota Świnoujście are showing clearly superior recent form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored 11 goals in the process, while Lipno Stęszew have lost all 5 of their previous games, with a 5:12 goal difference. The hosts have lost every match played at home so far, conceding an average of 3.5 goals per game, while their opponents remain unbeaten away from home. Flota’s advantage is also evident in the quality of chances created: their average away xG stands at 1.75 compared with Lipno’s 1.30, while the hosts allow opponents to generate xG as high as 2.96. The visitors average 15.5 shots and 7 on target per away match, compared with Lipno’s 11.5 and 4.5, respectively, which should translate into a greater number of clear-cut chances. Lipno are capable of scoring an average of 1.5 goals at home, so completely ruling out a draw would not be justified, but the hosts’ defensive weakness clearly favors a Flota victory.

The BTTS pick is supported primarily by current form: in their last five matches, both teams scored in 80% of Lipno’s games and 60% of Flota’s. During this period, the hosts conceded an average of 2.4 goals and allowed opponents 2.21 xG, while Flota scored as many as 2.2 goals per match. Lipno averaged only 1.0 goal per game across their last five appearances, but Flota have failed to keep a clean sheet in any match this season and concede 1.0 goal on average. In addition, the visitors create an average of 1.75 xG and register 7.0 shots on target per match, which significantly increases their chances of exploiting the hosts’ defensive weaknesses. Lipno’s season-long BTTS rate of 25% reduces confidence in the pick, but Flota’s 100% rate and the league average of 72% support a scenario in which both teams score.

Lipno has conceded as many as 2.4 goals per match over its last five games, with 80% of those fixtures going Over 2.5 goals. Flota is in significantly better attacking form, averaging 2.2 goals scored recently, while its opponents have conceded an average of 1.4 goals against them. The visitors have scored in every match this season, whereas Lipno has kept a clean sheet in 50% of its games; however, its current five-match losing streak and 12 goals conceded significantly reduce the weight of that statistic. In addition, the league average of 3.69 goals and 65% of matches finishing Over 2.5 goals support a high-scoring scenario, making Over 1.5 goals the strongest selection.

Flota Świnoujście are in clearly better current form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches and averaged 2.2 goals scored, while Lipno have lost all 5 games, scoring just 1.0 goal per match. The visitors’ advantage is already evident before half-time, as they were leading at the break in 60% of their last five matches, whereas the hosts were behind at half-time in 80% of their games over the same period. Lipno conceded an average of 1.2 goals before the break while scoring just 0.2, whereas Flota kept a clean sheet at half-time in 80% of those matches. After the interval, the visitors still look stronger, averaging 1.6 goals compared with Lipno’s 0.8, making a Flota lead at half-time followed by a full-time victory the most likely HT/FT scenario.